Action or Sanctions

The UN Secretary-General's Special Representative to Darfur Jan Pronk has the monumental responsibility of reporting to the UN Security Council on 30 August on the progress towards peace in the Darfur region of Sudan, a speech which could very well decide whether or not the Security Council imposes sanctions on the Khartoum government.

His uncanny resemblance to former UN weapons inspector Hans Blix is not just skin deep. It is apparent in carefully phrased statements, non-committal words and the obvious attempt to adopt a neutral -- Pronk likes to call it "impartial" -- approach towards the issue at hand, even when it has to do with the destiny of millions of people.

However, unlike Blix, Pronk does not get the same unending media attention. After all, unlike Iraq, Washington does not seem too determined to invade Sudan, although it seems quite willing to take issue with the Sudanese government. First it was the situation in southern Sudan, now it is Darfur while the developments in eastern Sudan may also open the door for further American intervention.

Pronk is not willing to dwell on comparisons to Blix. Nor is he willing to compare Iraq to Sudan. His mandate is to make sure that the Sudanese government is acting promptly to end the serious humanitarian crisis that has already claimed the lives of thousands of innocent people and to bring about security, peace and development in cooperation with all concerned international and regional bodies in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1556. Some human rights groups estimate the casualties to date are between 50,000 and 30,000, although the Sudanese government concedes no more than 5,000.

On 30 July, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1556 on Darfur in accordance with US wishes. The resolution, adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, allows for the use of force and demands that the Sudanese government disarm the Janjaweed militias, seen in many international quarters as a government-supported Arab militia that has been committing atrocious human rights violations -- Congress has even used the word genocide -- against non-Arab ethnic groups.

According to the resolution, adopted with 13 in favour, including Algeria, and the abstention of both China and Pakistan, Jan Pronk should present to the Security Council a progress report every 30 days detailing Khartoum's faithfulness in honouring its international commitments under the terms of the resolution and the joint communiqué with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on 3 July.

The resolution set 29 August as the deadline for the Khartoum regime to comply. If Pronk goes to the Security Council on 30 August to say that date came and went without the Sudanese government showing compliance there is a good possibility that sanctions could be placed on Sudan. If, however, Pronk reports that the Sudanese government is complying, the Khartoum regime will not face punitive action unless the following report 30 days later reveals non-compliance. "I cannot go and tell the Council that the Sudanese government is on its way to make progress. 'On the way' is not good enough. The Sudanese government has to make progress. 'On the way' or 'on the right track' would mean that we are still at square one and that is it not good enough," Pronk said.

"The government of Sudan has not been requested to get everything done overnight, 30 days are not sufficient for a full solution but substantial progress is required... and 30 days are sufficient for substantial progress to be made."

Pronk along with high-ranking UN, regional and international diplomats have acknowledged the efforts undertaken by the Sudanese government to relieve the human disaster in Darfur. But what does it take for Pronk to report to the Security Council in two weeks that "substantial progress" has actually been made? How would Pronk assess the "substantiality" of the progress?

"Security is the key word there -- I have to be able to go and tell the Security Council that the Sudanese government has made security available. If you do not have security, people will continue to flee," he said.

For security to be attained, Pronk notes, the government of Sudan has to create safe areas in Darfur in which people can live free from the military conflict and to which displaced peoples can return. "So, the first step is the most important. A few days ago I signed an action plan with Sudanese Foreign Minister Mustafa Othman Ismail to make security possible by creating these safe areas -- which cannot just be a few sporadic areas -- and to pressure rebels to lay down weapons," Pronk said.

He added that this agreement will contribute to the first part of his report to the UN Security Council and "commended" the commitment of the Sudanese government.

The action plan aims at creating conditions for peace, development and security in Darfur. The agreement, signed on Saturday, on the eve of an emergency Arab League ministerial meeting on Darfur, acknowledged that the government of Sudan may not be able to fulfill all the requirements of Resolution 1556 by the deadline of 29 August, but that there are several actions that should be taken to demonstrate commitment. "Those actions, as clearly stipulated in the text of the plan of action, have to be honoured," said Pronk. The Khartoum regime has to identify and create secure areas where people can access humanitarian assistance. The government of Sudan also has to pressure rebel groups, particularly the Janjaweed, over which it has influence, to maintain the current ceasefire. Moreover, the government of Sudan has to show political commitment to peace talks.

Judging by what he has seen so far, Pronk is willing to indicate that the Khartoum regime seems to have good intentions. "But it all depends on the implementation of the action plan," he said.

As far as Pronk is concerned, "the pressure applied by the UN Security Council resolution is helpful," as it encourages the Sudanese government to continue to honour its commitments towards some 1.2 million people who are in Darfur, in refugee camps or simply stranded in neighbouring Chad. According to a general assessment offered by Pronk, some 50 per cent of the 1.2 million have gained access to clean water and 80 per cent access to food. "But this is not good enough. More, much more has to be done," he said.

Pronk says that the international community has to reach out with serious assistance. He commended the efforts undertaken by the African Union and those promised by the Arab League "as a great contribution that we need in Darfur". But he stressed that the job is primarily for the Sudanese government. Pronk told his contemporaries that if Arab countries want to help Sudan avoid international sanctions, then they have to do much more than take stances against sanctions; they have to help the Sudanese government make good on its commitments.

Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on Sunday afternoon, shortly before he stepped into the opening session of the Arab League meeting, Pronk stressed that there are "three weeks left" before the 29 August deadline expires and that there is still much to be done, especially in terms of convincing "all the militias" to lay down their arms. "We are not asking the Sudanese government to suddenly disarm. No, we are saying that the militias can keep their arms [for now] but they have to put them down and not use them, later you can collect these weapons, and the UN can help," Pronk said.

Pronk is not willing to suggest that the Janjaweed should lay down their arms while rebel groups like the Justice and Equality Movement or the Sudan Liberation Army should be exempt. "Everybody has to put their weapons down. And of course there should be force used against those who do not want to comply. Police forces are required," he said.

Pronk welcomes the plan of the African Union to send observers and forces to protect them. He also welcomes the intention of some members of the Arab League to contribute to this effort. But he knows that without the serious commitment of the Sudanese government substantial progress will not be achieved or, more importantly, sustained.

So far, Pronk has underlined his "confidence" in the peace process and has avoided talking about the mistakes that the Sudanese government made during the past few months on Darfur, before its agreement with the UN Secretary-General. "This is behind us, and I am acting in the way I should be acting -- as a neutral independent partner," he said.

During his stay in the region, Pronk has been making a serious effort to communicate with Sudan's neighbours as he believes their influence could be instrumental in establishing security and peace in Darfur. Pronk has visited Kenya, Chad, Eritrea and Egypt and he intends to do more on this front. The message he carries to these countries is simple and clear: it is in their interest, as much as it is in the interest of the Sudanese government, to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Darfur. Continuing conflict and a spillover of refugees is in no one's best interests, and neighbouring states have to play a role "comparable to that the IGAD (Inter- governmental Agency for Development) played" in settling the dispute between the Sudanese government and armed opposition groups.

Pronk is not willing to reveal the outcome of his talks with these countries, but he does believe that his message was clearly conveyed and that the reaction from these countries should be forceful, especially in the suspension of all military assistance to the militias. He believes that neighbouring countries also have to provide assistance to the people of Darfur in overcoming the serious ecological problems they have to deal with, multiplied by the fact that the planting and harvesting seasons have been missed.

There is room, Pronk believes, for everyone who is concerned about Sudan "to be more active and to use their clout". Pronk is hoping that the upcoming African Union peace talks in Abuja on 23 August will open the door for a potential political settlement that could facilitate peace and security in Darfur. He is aware that there is a growing trend on the part of the rebels of Darfur to incorporate the opposition of the Sudanese government in eastern Sudan into these talks. "We are worried about the situation in Eastern Sudan," he said. However, he adds that the issue now is Darfur.

What will happen if Pronk goes to the UN Security Council on 30 August and reports that the Sudanese government has made substantial progress in honouring its commitments? Will the Security Council then set aside the threat of punitive measures against the Sudanese government? Pronk says that this is something for the Sudanese government to decide. "The government of Sudan has made commitments. The ball is now in its court to fulfill those commitments. To say that progress is under way will not be good enough. Progress has to be established," he said.