Al-Qaeda Tries to Split West Over Iraq

A truce offered yesterday by Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader, to European countries that have forces in Iraq has clarified key aspects of al-Qaeda's strategy.

Through a taped statement, broadcast by Arab television channels, al-Qaeda aimed to split the US-led coalition in Iraq by offering European countries a three-month respite from terrorist attacks if they withdrew their forces.

The statement referred to the fall of Spain's Popular party at the general election after its handling of the Madrid attacks on March 11. He addressed his message to "our neighbours north of the Mediterranean Sea with a proposal for a truce in response to the positive reactions which emerged there".

Yesterday's statement is only the most recent indication of al-Qaeda's central goal: to expel non-Muslims from the Islamic world. This aim connects the attacks of the past year - even if most of the bombers responsible were not in contact with each other.

Al-Qaeda's brand of Islam - "jihadist-salafism" - has turned violence into a religious creed. But the pattern of these attacks suggests al- Qaeda's strategy has several facets.

These include creating chaos within the Islamic world. Conflict, fear and insecurity will, Mr bin Laden hopes, drive non-Muslims from these countries, undermine the credibility of incumbent rulers and foment popular discontent.

"They can't overthrow the Arab regimes without first confronting the western powers," says Mohamed Darif, an expert on Moroccan Islam at Hassan II University in Mohammedia near Casablanca. Attacks on westerners have been launched to shatter the alliance between the west and its allies among Arab rulers, he suggests. "The real targets are the Muslims they regard as irreligious."

Viewed as part of this strategy, the attacks in Spain were designed rather to encourage the departure of Spanish troops from Iraq than to open a new front in Europe.

With Madrid, as elsewhere, planners chose targets that exploited existing political tensions. This is a particularly potent strategy in countries where al-Qaeda's sympathisers have been most active - Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Turkey and Iraq. The Istanbul bombings in November 2003, for example, led to criticism of the Turkish army's historic encouragement of Islamist radicals in the fight against Kurdish separatists, and exacerbated divisions over the government's desire to join the European Union.

But the US-led invasion of Iraq has "completely changed the situation in terms of the global threat", says Jean-Louis Bruguière, France's chief counter-terrorism investigator, "and is playing a key role in mobilising global sentiment".

In Madrid it was a mobile telephone pin card, found in a backpack bomb that failed to explode on one target trains, that provided the first clue to the greater terrorist threat. It gave police the evidence that led to Jamal Zougam, among other suspects, who has now been charged with terrorism offences.

Mr Zougam's previous ties with al-Qaeda and other Islamist militants in Europe fit into the trail of relationships that leads from western Europe to the battlefields of Iraq.

A detailed inquiry into al-Qaeda in Europe, published last September by Baltazar Garzón, Spain's senior counter-terrorism judge, also linked Europe and Iraq. Mr Garzón revealed ties between the European network and Abu Musab al-Zarkawi, a Jordanian thought to be tied to the organisation.

As well as links with European operatives, US investigators allege that Mr Zarkawi, thought to be in Iraq, is at the forefront of efforts to foment a civil war there.

But Iraq is a difficult place even for al-Qaeda, says Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's former intelligence chief who is now the kingdom's ambassador to the UK. "If there were more Iraqis among them, it might be different. But Iraqis are one of the smallest groups within al-Qaeda.

"I would argue that Iraq is more susceptible to becoming a base for terrorist activity, but not necessarily that of al-Qaeda," he says.

Although the organisation's presence in Iraq remains unclear, al-Qaeda appears determined to exploit the crisis in Iraq to bolster its global efforts.

Yesterday's statement - confirmed by the Central Intelligence Agency as being authentic - was clear on this issue. It said: "Whoever rejects this truce and wants war, we are its [war's] sons and whoever wants this truce here we bring it."