American Apathy: Voters’ Aversion to Foreign Entanglements Bodes Ill for Stability in Asia

The United States primary elections have made it almost certain that November’s presidential contest will pit Republican candidate Donald Trump against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. The American public’s disgruntlement about the stagnating economy, and its apparent aversion to the US playing an active role in upholding international peace and security (as revealed within both the Republican and Democratic camps) is a matter of worry not just to those parties’ leaders but to a world that relies on US leadership. Isolationism in America, at a time when the need for a steady hand is stronger than ever, is a matter of concern all over the world, especially in Asia.


Popular anger over free trade agreements signed by successive US administrations and American involvement in international conflicts are among the issues that have propelled the likes of Trump and Bernie Sanders in the primaries. The political churning during the primaries will do more than just force the next administration to reconsider established policies. Although Trump’s foreign policy statements comprise mainly off-the-cuff remarks and crude language. “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country,” he said referring to Chinese exports. In his first formal foreign policy speech he, curiously, avoided talking about China’s military advances in the South China Sea. He has said he would use trade as leverage to stop China’s aggressive moves.


Trump’s reluctance to discuss possible responses to the Chinese military challenge is, however, in sync with the public’s aversion to foreign military involvement. The latest Pew Research Survey shows that isolationist sentiment in the US has increased since 2010: nearly 60% of Americans think the country should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with theirs as best they can. About two-thirds of Americans agree that, “We should not think so much in international terms but concentrate more on our own national problems.” There is a sense that nearly half of the people believe that the US is doing too much to help solve world problems.


In this context, it makes sense that during the primaries attacks on both Democratic and Republican administrations for involvement in costly foreign conflicts have gained traction. Despite media coverage of Russia’s Ukraine intervention and China’s aggressive island-building in the South China Sea, the American public seems generally to take a benign view. The latest Pew survey says, “There is no sign of growing public concern about either China or Russia.” While about a quarter of the public views each as an adversary, some 44% consider each country a serious problem but not an adversary. The survey also shows that Americans want their next president to focus on domestic policy not foreign policy. The fact that Americans continue to give greater importance to ties with European nations than Asia would also argue against US military involvement in the region.


In a coincidence that may not bode well for stability in Asia, this isolationism has emerged at a time when China under President Xi Jinping seems ready to defy the international community to turn the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. American apathy towards aggressive behavior by Moscow and Beijing and the public’s aversion to foreign entanglements, displayed during the election campaigns, could further embolden them to challenge Washington. Asian and Western diplomats worry that the forthcoming ruling (in June) by an international court on the validity of China’s expansive claims to the South China Sea could trigger further aggressive action by China.


Washington has warned Beijing against new moves in the contested waters and has reinforced its military presence in the Philippines to deter China. But in the final months of a lame duck administration, experts are concerned that symbolic deployment of forces and ritualistic sail-pasts by US Navy vessels to affirm the principle of “freedom of navigation” may fail to impress Beijing. The concern over Chinese attempts to establish its supremacy by ignoring American warnings has led academic experts to call upon the US to lay down a red line and be ready to use force against Chinese illegal encroachments. It would not only uphold maritime law, they argue, but also preserve US credibility in the face of Chinese challenge. Historically, a time of transition has often been a testing time for US administration. American voters’ frustration and isolationism this year might make it more tempting for foreign adversaries to seek advantage.