Asia Braces for Iraq War Fallout

KUALA LUMPUR -- Asia is bracing for a conflict in Iraq as though it were the start of a new world war, in the sense that few countries feel they will be immune from the fallout.

Fears for the stability of governments, regional security and the risk of increased terrorism rank high alongside economic worries in a number of nations.

Australia's determination to send troops into a US-led war is expected to spark widespread protests and could do long-term political damage to conservative Prime Minister John Howard.

More than 400,000 demonstrators turned out last month to condemn Mr Howard's pro-US Iraq policy in the biggest protests the nation has seen since the Vietnam war, and similar protests are already being organised for the day war erupts.

Surveys show up to 70 per cent of the public opposed to his stance on Iraq.

Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is seen as certain to be blamed for any stock market debacle following a US-led attack on Iraq, which he does not oppose despite growing public anti-war sentiment.

Mr Koizumi told reporters on Tuesday: 'I think it is appropriate to support use of force by the United States' as long as Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has no intention to disarm himself.

'I support the US stance,' he said, adding that a string of UN resolutions on Iraq gave it legitimacy.

There are fears in Tokyo that North Korea would step up its military threat with a missile test-launch while US attention is diverted to the Middle East, another factor which could send Japanese share prices to new 20-year lows.

A telephone poll conducted by the Kyodo news agency found 79 per cent of respondents were opposed to a US-led attack on Iraq.

Muslim countries in the region fear that war in Iraq will stoke the fires of Islamic extremism.

Malaysia's Acting Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who takes over leadership of the 57-member Organisation of the Islamic Conference in October, warned in an interview with AFP that war would 'put the governments of Islamic countries under very severe strain'.

'The militants and terrorists would obviously want to exploit the situation and even the moderate Muslims will be very angry,' he said.

In Pakistan, where President Pervez Musharraf is already under fire for his cooperation with the United States in its military campaign in Afghanistan and the hunt for Al-Qaeda fugitives, newly powerful Islamist parties are portraying an invasion of Iraq as an attack on the Muslim world.

Neighbouring Afghanistan is concerned that war in Iraq will deflect attention from its own war-affected plight and prompt a backlash by Islamic extremists.

In the world's most populous Islamic country, Indonesia, police have made plans to control protesters, prevent Westerners from being targeted, secure businesses and foil any terrorist attacks, the authorities say.

Industry and Trade Minister Rini Suwandi said considering the moderate nature of Islam practised in Indonesia, the government was confident the situation would not get out of control. 'But we're preparing,' she said.

For many countries which rely heavily on oil imports, such as India, the fallout is more likely to be on the economic rather than the political front, analysts say.

However, anti-US protests have been growing in size and number in India in recent weeks and are expected to become more vociferous.

And in a significant change from the 1991 Gulf War, India on Sunday ruled out allowing refuelling facilities for US or allied warplanes on its territory.

In China, while the foreign ministry has declined to speculate how an Iraq war would affect US ties, the crisis appears to have fuelled lingering anti-American sentiment among a public which believes the US has ulterior motives and really wants Iraq's oil.

The threat of war has once again underlined China's own dependence on the Middle East, the source of 60 per cent of its oil imports.

South Korea fears that the economic impact of war could squeeze an economy that is already slowing down, with some analysts speculating that it is in for a repeat of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis which bought the economy to its knees.

Philippines President Gloria Arroyo on Monday rejected suggestions that her country could be the worst loser in South-east Asia in case of war in Iraq.

Dismissing predictions based on the Philippines' dependence on Middle East oil and the US market, terrorist threats, and the 1.5 million jobs of Filipino contract workers in the Mideast, she said: 'The scenarios used are dated, they are not applicable.

'Our country is ready and resilient, with good economic fundamentals. Whatever effects a war will have on us, these will be short term in duration.'

Other leaders may not share Mrs Arroyo's confidence, but they will no doubt hope she is right.

Meanwhile, police broke up a protest that formed outside the US embassy in Manila on Tuesday. Riot police armed with clubs set upon about 20 left-wing protesters as they set up a picket line outside the mission.

The protesters were chased away with truncheons. No one was arrested and it was unclear if there were any injuries.