Back to Bases

For the most part, the agenda for Junichiro Koizumi's 35-minute chat with George Bush in New York last week was a reflection of the times: beef imports, the war in Iraq and Japanese membership of the UN security council.

But there was room, too, for discussions on a more traditional theme - the presence of tens of thousands of US troops on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa.

Geographically closer to Manila than to Tokyo and lumbered with the poorest regional economy in Japan, Okinawa nevertheless looms large in US-Japan relations.

It is home to more than half of the 47,000 US troops stationed in Japan, whose presence, Tokyo and Washington agree, is a crucial deterrent to North Korean belligerence and a restraint on Chinese moves to begin acting like the regional power it is fast becoming.

For the people of Okinawa, though, geopolitical considerations are secondary to the quality-of-life issues that inevitably arise when tens of thousands of military personnel live side-by-side with a largely resentful civilian population.

As a result, anti-American outbursts are as common and predictable as the typhoons that lash its shores late every summer.

In 1995, the kidnapping and rape of a 12-year-old girl by three US servicemen brought hundreds of thousands out onto the streets, forcing Washington and Tokyo to mollify them with loose plans to reduce the US military footprint on the island.

More regular misdemeanours range from break-ins to bar fights and traffic accidents.

The most recent outcry was prompted by a missing part in a CH-53 military helicopter which forced it to crash into the grounds of Okinawa International University on August 13.

Fortunately, no one was killed in the accident, which occurred during the university's summer holiday, although the three US servicemen aboard the helicopter were injured.

So why the uproar?

To begin with, the aftermath proved beyond any doubt that in the Japan-US security relationship, Japan remains the junior partner by some margin, even when incidents occur on its own soil.

Local investigators were quickly ushered from the scene by their American counterparts and then, to compound the insult, were excluded from the investigation that followed. Requests to ground all helicopters of the same type until the cause of the accident had been established were ignored.

The Japanese response did little to quell local anger. Mr Koizumi refused to interrupt his summer holiday to deal with the political fallout and did not meet local political leaders, including the governor of Okinawa, Kenichi Inamine - a far more Tokyo-friendly leader than his leftwing predecessor Masahide Ota - until he returned to work more than a week later.

But the biggest catalyst for the protests was the crash site itself. The university lies close to Futenma Marine Corps air base in Ginowan. The base dominates the city, occupying a quarter of its land and forcing its 90,000 residents to live with the constant noise of aircraft, and the constant threat of a tragic accident.

With its perimeter fence surrounded by roads, houses and schools, Futenma's leviathan proportions have made its occupants most unwelcome guests.

In 1996, when Japanese and US officials met to discuss ways to mollify a public incensed by the rape case, it was agreed, somewhat hurriedly, that Futenma would be returned to the local civilian government within five to seven years.

More than seven years have passed, and not a single marine or piece of hardware has left Futenma.

That is because, as yet, they have nowhere else to go. The proposed alternative - a floating offshore base in Nago on the island's north-east coast, is as unpopular as it is expensive. Construction is expected to take at least 10 years at a cost of $2bn (£1.1bn).

A recent newspaper poll found that 81% of Okinawans oppose the floating base, compared with just 10% who support it. Dozens of environmental groups say the project would destroy coral reefs and wildlife.

The majority of Nago's 56,000 residents had voted against the plan in a referendum in 1997, but the local government, lured by the prospect of cash handouts from Tokyo, decided to ignore them.

The alternatives include combining Futenma's functions with those of the nearby Kadena air force base, or even less likely, moving it to Hawaii, Guam or another location in the US.

But none of those options appeals to Washington. Hawaii and Guam are simply too far from potential trouble spots such as the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Straits, and the very idea of airmen and marines - with their distinct military cultures - rubbing shoulders at Kadena privately horrifies some US military officials.

Yet the Japanese government wants to persist with the plan, despite evidence that it is now all but unworkable.

There is good reason for that, according to Yoichi Iha, the mayor of Ginowan, who wrote recently: "They seem to be reluctant to rethink the plan out of a fear that such a review could lead to a proposal to move the base from Okinawa to the Japanese mainland, which would be a really explosive political issue."

Indeed it would. Many Japanese are willing to tolerate the US military presence in their country provided the bulk of the troops remain out of sight, and for the most part, out of mind, on distant Okinawa.

Neither can Japan expect to benefit from plans to reduce the number of US troops stationed in Europe and Asia by 70,000. Instead, the biggest reductions are expected to come in South Korea, where 12,500 of the 37,000 US troops will be sent on their way.

On Okinawa, the protests continue. Earlier this month 30,000 people demonstrated against Futenma in the biggest show of anti-base sentiment for almost 10 years.

Recalling the helicopter crash, Mayor Iha told the crowd that the risk of more accidents would not disappear simply by moving the air base to Nago. He added: "The central government is pressing for relocation inside the prefecture, thereby bringing about a confrontation among Okinawans and putting off a solution of the US base issues."

He was spot on, but while Tokyo persists in fudging the Futenma relocation plans, he and his constituents are powerless to do anything about it.