China Space Program Makes US Anxious

CHINA is aiming to become the world's next space power. However, in an effort to achieve domestic policy objectives and boost national pride, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is adding a new, unpredictable dimension to a stable and profitable Sino-American relationship.

This month, Chinese astronauts will attempt to orbit the Earth, pushing expectations to heights unseen since the Soviet-American space race of the 1960s. The United States, which has grounded its space shuttle programme and whose citizens are still reeling from the Columbia tragedy, is awaiting the Chinese attempt with unease.

From the Chinese point of view, nationalism and economic growth remain the dual pillars essential for general stability and effective communist rule on the mainland. A space programme, like other large-scale undertakings such as the Three Gorges Dam project and the hosting of the 2008 Olympics, will enhance national pride.

Media control remains a valuable instrument for Beijing's perpetuation of party-centric nationalism. China's state-run press skilfully intertwines imagery and syntax, blending support for the party and the nation. It has extensively covered the party's ambitions to land a man on the moon, and later set up lucrative mining operations on it. Journalists have even mused over trips to Mars and deep space.

To China experts in the US, China's space programme makes sense.

'For China, this fulfils its leaders' long-time aspiration and will have substantial corollary benefits for military and commercial technologies,' said Mr Derek Mitchell, senior fellow for Asia at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 'Putting someone in space will serve as a further source of national pride and symbol of China's emergence as a major world player. It's also a way for the communist regime to use nationalism to legitimise its rule, even as its founding ideology becomes less relevant in the lives of its citizens.'

Beijing's policy objectives may be largely domestic, but some Americans are sceptical of the risky and costly endeavour. In US minds, the establishment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration was a feature of the Cold War, and linked with a blockade of Cuba and backyard fallout shelters. When the Soviets went to space, Americans saw it as a hostile move.

During the US-Soviet space race, both sides felt compelled to act lest their existence be threatened. Beijing has no such compulsion. China faces no direct threat and no competitor to its growing regional prowess. Instead, the desire is largely introspective, one of asking: 'Can we conquer this obstacle?'

However, the desire to flaunt Chinese technical expertise and fuel nationalism is not worth upsetting the nation's most important bilateral relationship. Mr Mitchell is fearful this may be an unintended result.

'I'm afraid that if China succeeds in its space mission, many Americans may react in the same way they did when the USSR surprised us in the 1950s,' he said. 'If a successful mission also stokes Chinese nationalism, it may accentuate US concerns about the future trajectory of China as a proud power and rival to the US.'

Even without assigning any hostile intention to China's space programme, a senior US government China analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained that the programme would affect US strategy.

'China's ability to launch a man into space will demonstrate a high degree of technical prowess and will confirm a sophisticated missile technology base, with applications for both strategic missiles and space exploration,' he said.

Fears extend beyond missile technology. Some experts regard China's secretive manned space programme as part of a larger strategy to vie with the Pentagon in space. The US military relies on satellites for communications and arms targeting. There is also speculation that China is developing satellite-based weapons intended to attack spacecraft and is studying ground-based lasers to blind enemy satellites.

So while a space programme may be a domestic success, the marketing strategy China now has for its programme cannot allay all concerns. China's leaders are publicising the humanitarian benefits of their space odyssey while downplaying military applications. And although its leaders have done well to refrain from making inflammatory comments, propaganda and soft talk can do little to ease American anxiety.

In real terms, it is not Beijing's comments that unnerve Americans, but rather its silence. China's space programme is top secret and military-run, and the nation's 14 astronauts remain anonymous.

To be sure, there are those who see China's space programme as an opportunity. One Florida-based newspaper has suggested that a Chinese space mission would be an opportunity to 'reach out to Beijing and bring the country into international cooperative space ventures'. US law now prohibits such collaborations.

For China, as with all perilous endeavours, the chance of a deadly public failure looms large. By linking national pride and CCP credibility, Beijing is jeopardising both.

China's leaders would be well served to take American apprehensions into account when determining the type and nature of their space programme's objectives. Meanwhile, many Americans are caught in a quandary: They do not want to hope for failure, but Chinese success could be even more frightening.