Communist Party at Crossroads

BEIJING - AS IT turns 85 tomorrow, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) finds itself at a tricky crossroads where the future is framed by both the confidence gleaned from a rising China as well as insecurities from mounting domestic challenges.

In speeches this weekend, Chinese leaders will use the anniversary to highlight the party's key achievements, namely lifting millions out of poverty and restoring the country to its pride of place among the world's most powerful countries.

China now has the world's fourth largest economy, and could overtake the United States in the decades ahead.

The country's diplomatic clout has never seemed heftier as it expands its reach into Africa, Asia and Latin America.

The CCP's grip at home also seems beyond doubt.

According to the official Xinhua news agency, the party has 3.52 million grassroots organisations spread across the country.

Party membership has also hit a historic high of 70.8 million, up from a paltry 53 when it convened its first national congress in Shanghai in 1921.

Behind the successes, however, the CCP has a long list of domestic challenges which pose uncomfortable questions about its future.

Endemic corruption and abuse of power aside, it now has its hands full dealing with the country's growing pains.

Nearly three decades of breakneck economic growth have resulted in severe environmental degradation.

Sixteen of the world's 20 most polluted cities are in China, while 70 per cent of the water in five of the country's seven major river systems is not fit for human consumption.

A widening wealth gap is fuelling discontent and could tip the country into social unrest by the end of this decade, if unaddressed, researchers have warned.

Leaders such as President Hu Jintao are aware of the problems and have introduced policies that seek to nudge China towards greater social equity and sustainable development.

But some critics and CCP members charge that these piecemeal remedies will not go far as long as Beijing fails to break the cycle of corruption and collusion that binds the country's political, business and intellectual elite.

'The corruption that we are talking about is not something that is limited to one business sector, one particular group of people or province,' said Mr Chen Bin, 31, who asked that his real name not be used. 'It is in every corner. Leaders at the very top may be clean, but what about the people around them?'

Mr Chen was a former doctor with the People's Liberation Army and a CCP member for nine years.

Using a medical analogy, he said: 'If you want to cure (the problem of corruption), you'll need a major operation, not a minor one. I'm not sure if the patient can survive an operation like this.'

However, the prognosis by Professor Li Cheng, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, is less grim.

He told The Straits Times: 'The main challenges (for the CCP) are not immediate, but are in the future. The party, in my view, is in good shape.'

While the CCP faces a long list of domestic socio- economic problems, Prof Li argued that Beijing has taken a very proactive approach.

For example, the leadership has been trying to move towards sustainable development by steering local governments away from the growth-at-all costs mindset while encouraging the use of alternative energy.

To help narrow the rural-urban gap, it has also abolished agricultural taxes and begun ramping up state investment in the rural areas.

While these policies may not yield overnight successes, they represent a step in the right direction.

'But the long-term challenges are daunting,' Prof Li acknowledged, citing demographic shifts and mindset changes among younger Chinese as likely forces that would affect CCP's future.

He said the children of top Chinese leaders now would rather go into business - where their connections make them top deal brokers - rather than join the CCP.

'This tells you a lot about the future,' Prof Li said, adding: 'My sense is that in 10 to 15 years, it would be a completely different political game and the CCP will face serious challenges from outside the party.'

While the CCP has taken some modest steps in recent years to address these longer-term issues, such as by co-opting businessmen into the party, it does not seem to have a clear strategy for dealing with tougher questions over its legitimacy and the public's aspiration for political reforms, said political analyst Zhang Zuhua.

He added: 'The CCP is in a dilemma. They are afraid of the risks and domino effect that could come with bolder reforms.

'Yet, to do nothing, the pressures just add up. But I think Mr Hu would rather put these challenges aside and let his successors deal with them in the future.'

For ordinary members such as Mr Chen, pragmatism rules - whether or not the party finds the answers for its long-term survival.

Despite being disillusioned, he said he had not thought about giving up his party membership as it conferred certain advantages.

'This doesn't mean that the membership means anything to me. It is a status that I enjoy, and it could help my son get a job in the future,' he pointed out.