A Conflict That Will Stay Close to Home

The heated missile exchange between Israel and Hezbollah factions in southern Lebanon is influenced by Syria and Iran, both openly supportive of Islamist agendas to obliterate the Zionist state, according to political analyst Edward M. Luttwak. However, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reasons to step gingerly, as his precarious reign depends on the loyalty of the small Alawite religious minority to which he belongs and any military defeat could mean his potential overthrow. In addition, though Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boasts about his country’s military might and nuclear capabilities, Luttwak suggests that Iran’s military capacity is limited to faulty ballistic missiles imported from North Korea. While such missiles are deadly, Iran may think twice, because any deployment would invite a US-driven attack on its nuclear or military centers. Hezbollah has built some cross-border solidarity among Islamist factions, most Arab nations fear a non-Arab, Iranian nuclear front, and might hesitate to assist Iran should it come under US attack. All in all, the spread of the Israeli-Hezbollah violence is unlikely. The more likely danger could be a breakdown of Lebanon’s government and a spreading perception that the US lacks control in the Middle East. – YaleGlobal