Different Stories

Since the beginning of this year, the Arab League has been faced with one insurrection after another in the Arab world and in both republics and monarchies.

Yet, aside from recent moves made against the Libyan regime, the organisation has made little attempt to intervene, not intervening in the twin revolutions that removed first Tunisian president Zein Al-Abidine bin Ali and then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, for example.

The question of intervention has become pressing in recent days, with Arab diplomats now discussing the situation in Yemen with an eye to its possible deterioration, as security forces loyal to Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh become more aggressive in dealing with demonstrations calling for an end to Saleh's rule.

"No decision has been taken to hold a summit meeting on Yemen, since the situation there is not like that in Libya, where the military is being used to crush demonstrations," said one Arab League diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity.

According to the diplomat, what was happening in Libya amounted to a war by the regime against its own people, which was why the Arab League had intervened. In Yemen, on the other hand, there was "a different story."

The concern about Yemen, he said, was that this was a state that had once been divided into two, and the territorial unity of Yemen could be compromised if the current situation develops.

After some two weeks of watching the demonstrations that started in Tunis in late December last year, the Arab League issued a statement calling for the recognition of legitimate demands for reform. After Bin Ali was ousted, it issued another statement expressing its respect for the will of the Tunisian people.

In the case of the Egyptian revolution the situation was different because Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa, himself Egyptian, supported the revolution. The end of the Mubarak regime in Egypt on 11 February was received with statements of support for Egypt and for its role in the pan-Arab organisation.

In the Libyan case, the Arab League has felt that it had little option but to intervene. "In Libya, the regime used the military to quell the demonstrators, making the situation completely different," commented an Arab League diplomat.

Fewer than two weeks after the beginning of the violence orchestrated by Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi, in power for over 40 years, the Arab League took the unprecedented decision to suspend the participation of Libya in meetings of the Arab organisation.

Over the 60 years of its existence, the organisation has generally tried to emphasise reconciliation, only suspending Egypt from membership of the League in the late 1970s as a result of the peace agreement signed by late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat with Israel.

It did not suspend the membership of Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and it has not suspended the membership or participation of Sudan over alleged crimes against humanity committed by Sudanese President Omar Bashir in Darfur, for which he has been indicted by the International Criminal Court.

Earlier this week, the Arab League called on the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya in order to bring an end to Gaddafi's use of military aircraft against demonstrators, despite reservations expressed by Syria, Mauritania and other countries.

The resolution called for the immediate end of the no-fly zone once the violence against the Libyan demonstrators ended, and it underlined the need to respect Libya's territorial integrity. "Of course we are aware of the sensitivities involved in calling for a no-fly zone, but Gaddafi's actions left us with no choice," one diplomat said.

Syria, Mauritania, Sudan and Algeria all argued against the no-fly zone during the Arab League foreign ministers meeting earlier this week, basing their arguments on concerns about Libyan sovereignty.

Yet, the resolution is also a reminder to Arab rulers that the use of force against their own people will give rise to significant reaction. This message, Arab diplomatic sources say, is primarily being addressed to president Saleh should he think of following Gaddafi's example in Yemen.

The question arises, however, of how far the League would wish to send a similar message to Bahraini monarch Hamad bin Eissa Al-Khalifa, who has also been faced with demonstrations calling for reforms over the past three weeks and who has also used force against the demonstrators.

Arab League sources have said that Arab monarchies and Arab republics cannot be considered in the same way, since "if you are an elected president, then at least in theory you have to go should the people want you to. However, the situation with a king or monarch is different," since here the principle of inherited rule comes into play, said a senior Arab League official.

Moreover, Arab League sources admit that there are other sensitivities in the case of Bahrain. This small Gulf kingdom is Sunni-ruled but has a Shia-majority population, and it is also a close ally of Saudi Arabia, where Shia voices have also been suppressed.

"The Arab League is not prepared to intervene in sectarian-based conflicts," the senior official said.

The League is also not in a position to predict where the next Arab revolution may take place.

When the Tunisian revolution ended Bin Ali's rule, many Arab diplomats anticipated that the next stop for calls for democracy would be neighbouring Algeria, where the rule of President Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika has also been challenged. However, it was Egypt that came next.

Today, it is not clear when the situation in Libya will settle, or when the crisis in Yemen will come to an end. It is not possible, either, to assess whether Algeria or Syria will be the next in line to respond to growing calls for democratisation.

The Arab League started work to set up a political crisis forecasting unit some months ago, though this work was never followed through. "Maybe when the new secretary-general takes over, he will think again about establishing this unit," said an Arab League official.

The mandate of the current Arab League secretary-general ends on 15 May this year. By that time, Gaddafi and Saleh might have been ejected from Tripoli and the Yemeni capital Sanaa, though the Arab world may also not have seen the end to the current insurrections.