Don’t Rock the Boat

BEIJING When George W. Bush meets Jiang Zemin in Texas this Friday, he is likely to find a skeptical but polite interlocutor who will make sure that Iraq does not get in the way of an improving relationship between China and the United States. This will reflect China's cold calculus of its immediate interests in a U.S.-dominated world.

In private conversation with visitors, Chinese officials make clear that they are fed up with Saddam Hussein and feel that he has no one to blame but himself if his regime is toppled by a UN-authorized American attack. China recently dropped its public opposition to the use of force to resolve international disputes, while urging a peaceful, political solution over Iraq. Jiang will likely hint to Bush that Beijing will not veto either a tough new inspection resolution or a use-of-force resolution if the United States gets Russia and France to acquiesce. China has learned a lesson from the mid-1990s when it strongly condemned the impending NATO intervention in Yugoslavia and found itself in a corner.

China's approach on Iraq has been described by some analysts as a "two respects" policy: Iraq should respect UN resolutions, and the United States should respect UN authority in dealing with Iraq. This approach reflects the evolution of Chinese foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.

Instead of seeking broad alliance with other powers to constrain the United States, Beijing sees itself facing a world in which the only possible countervailing force to American power is the United Nations. To allow Iraq to continue to flout the UN is to dangerously weaken the institution and open the door for unilateral action by the United States. Jiang will likely avoid confrontation. Some Chinese officials say they will be guided by the directive of the late supreme leader Deng Xiaoping. He reportedly said China should be part of the consensus of responsible world opinion and never allow itself to be isolated in the UN Security Council.

China is determined not to let Iraq get in the way of the improvement that has occurred in its relations with the United States since Sept. 11, 2001. The bitterness caused by the reconnaissance plane saga has been painted over with new cooperation in sharing intelligence about terrorists and with America's acceptance of the Chinese claim that a group in Xinjiang opposing its rule is a terrorist organization. Chinese officials are relieved that the recent U.S. national security strategy document does not present China as a strategic competitor. And despite increased U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, Washington has reaffirmed its opposition to independence for Taiwan. China does not want differences with America to get out of control and affect economic development. Millions of workers from failing state-owned enterprises are joining the army of unemployed, and new jobs must be created. Meanwhile, the world economy is slowing. Close cooperation with the United States is seen as a necessity. The fact that China's trade surplus with America, which absorbs some 20 percent of its exports, has reached $100 billion is a good enough reason for Jiang to avoid confrontation at Crawford.

The writer is director of publications at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.