Dueling Elections in Ukraine Test EU-Russian Ties

NEW HAVEN: In the midst of ongoing war and a deepening economic collapse, Ukraine held two sets of elections in the past week. Though both elections went off without a hitch, their results will only further complicate the nation’s politics and exacerbate the biggest security crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Returning pro-West candidates in the Ukrainian election and pro-Russian ones in the rebel enclave, the election could heighten confrontation between Russia and the West. Russian interest in bolstering rebellious elements within Ukraine introduces a long-term source of instability.

The larger of the two elections was for Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. Voting took place across the country except in Crimea, which Russia annexed in March, and in parts of Ukraine’s war-torn Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, which have declared independence. The second election was for leadership of the would-be independent republics in Donetsk and Lugansk.

The parliamentary elections produced results more encouraging for the country’s stability than expected. The parties of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk will have no difficulty forming a majority in parliament, giving the government power it needs to enact badly needed economic and political reforms. Far-right parties, which whipped up nationalist sentiment during the war, did worse than expected; only one right-wing party made it past the 5 percent threshold needed to secure seats in parliament.

The second election – for the leadership of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic – is more problematic. The incumbent leaders, Aleksandr Zakharchenko of Donetsk and Igor Plotnitsky of Lugansk, won easily. Turnout was high, as voters went to the polls to express disapproval of the way Kiev conducted the war, which, along with rebel actions, led to widespread destruction and civilian deaths in both regions. Yet the West and the United Nations claim that the elections in Donetsk and Lugansk violate the peace deal signed in Minsk in early September. Russia’s foreign ministry, by contrast, issued a statement recognizing the elections.

These dueling elections bring greater uncertainty, muddling prospects for resolving a crisis that has not only led to war in Ukraine, but also destroyed relations between Russia and the West. Not only do they signal that the Ukraine crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon, they also suggest that the broader confrontation between Russia and the West is likely to continue to disrupt ties in spheres as diverse as trade, energy and military relations.

The elections have led both Russia and the West to double down on support for their allies in Ukraine. The West, for example, cheered the victory of moderate forces in Ukraine’s election. Had far-right parties done well, the West would have found it harder to support the Kiev government. The centrist coalition that will govern Kiev, however, will focus on rebuilding Ukraine’s economy and reducing corruption, two initiatives that Western governments fully support.

The new government in Kiev is also committed to integrating with the European Union and with the West more generally. Here, the new leaders may be disappointed. Western governments are happy that Ukraine has signed an association agreement and trade deal with the EU. But few of Europe’s powerbrokers, including Germany, France and Italy, would support a path to EU membership for Ukraine. Even less significant steps such as visa-free travel for Ukrainians to the EU are unlikely soon. As a result, the practical benefits of Ukraine’s Western orientation may be less pronounced than many Ukrainians hope. Nonetheless, Europe appears willing at least to take the steps needed to ensure that Ukraine does not revert to Russia’s sphere of influence.

Russia, meanwhile, appears to be doubling down on support for its proxies in Ukraine’s eastern provinces Donetsk and Lugansk. Most observers believe that the Kremlin wants to keep Donetsk and Lugansk in Ukraine, but build up the power of the proxies that it supports. That will give Moscow a veto over Ukrainian politics, allowing it to prevent Ukraine from joining Western institutions such as the European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

That explains why Russia’s foreign ministry decided to recognize the elections, despite European officials threatening further financial and trade sanctions if it did so. Predictably, after news came out of the Kremlin’s backing of the elections, some European officials called for new sanctions.

Many in the business community had hoped that the tenuous ceasefire agreement signed two months ago would lead to rollback of the sanctions, by which Russia had banned most food imports from Europe, and the West restricted Russian companies’ ability to raise capital abroad or import technology needed by oil and gas companies. Now, it appears that those sanctions will be in place for some time, despite the economic damage they have caused to both Europe and Russia.

The competing elections in Ukraine also call into questions energy relations between Russia and the West. Most European countries import a large share of their natural gas from Russia, and some Central European countries are entirely dependent on Russia for imports. About 15 percent of Europe’s total gas imports from Russia come via pipelines that pass through Ukraine. Ukraine also needs gas from Russia, and after Ukraine’s Maidan revolution this winter, the Kremlin demanded that Ukraine pay higher prices.

Until last week, Kiev and Moscow could not agree on a deal, and Russia stopped sending gas to Ukraine, which also cut off gas supplies to countries dependent on pipelines that transit Ukraine. After protracted negotiations, the EU, Russia and Ukraine signed a new deal last week, whereby the EU would help Ukraine fund gas payments, and Russia would compromise on the price. Yet the current deal lasts only until March, presuming that neither side reneges. Either way, a new set of gas negotiations will soon be back on the agenda, creating chaos for consumers in Europe and further complicating relations between Moscow and Brussels.

While the gas crisis threatened to leave millions of Ukrainians and Europeans without heat this winter, a series of Russian military provocations have raised the specter of a return to open military confrontation, too. Over the past several weeks, Russian military aircraft have flown close to or violated NATO airspace in the Atlantic, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea – described by NATO officials as some of the most provocative military moves since the Cold War.

More surprising was the Swedish government’s weeklong hunt for a submarine, presumed to be Russian, in waters near Stockholm, as reported by the Swedish press. Sweden and Finland are not NATO members, though they have recently discussed joining. Just as Russia is willing to take military action to keep Ukraine out of NATO, the sub may be intended to remind Sweden about the risks that membership poses.

Ukraine’s dueling elections are part of a broader deterioration in relations between Russia and the West. Far from ameliorating tensions, the disputed outcome may have made matters worse. From trade sanctions to gas deals, from military security to the future of Ukraine itself – the Kremlin and Western governments are testing each other’s limits.

Europe has surprised most observers, including the Russians, by maintaining a fairly unified front. Its sanctions have required sacrifices, from France’s postponement of a lucrative deal to sell the Mistral warship to Russia to Germany’s falling exports of luxury cars and machine tools. Despite the costs of sanctions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has adeptly wielded her influence to craft a pan-European consensus on Russia policy. Berlin has compromised when necessary, as in the gas negotiations, but the overall strategy is to punish Russia until Putin changes course. The dispute over Ukraine’s dueling elections suggests that neither side is likely to blink soon.