Eye of the Storm

Warnings flooded into Damascus this week from Arab capitals as well as the Arab League as the international community, led by the US and France, upped the campaign to pressure Syria to meet a list of international demands that starts with the withdrawal of its 14,000 troops from Lebanon.

"The Syrians are being spoken to in no uncertain terms. This is not diplomatic language. Syria is being told to accommodate growing Lebanese and international requests for a pullout, or at least a substantial redeployment, of troops in Lebanon," one senior Arab diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly. He added that many Arab states have made it clear that they "will not burn their fingers for Syria any more."

Syria stands practically alone in the face of a growing regional and international storm that wants to blow its military and intelligence presence out of Lebanon, reduce its influence in neighbouring Iraq and erase its support for Hizbullah and militant Palestinian factions.

On the surface, the international community is telling Syria it must immediately comply with UN Security Council Resolution 1559. Beneath the surface Washington, many other Western and some Arab capitals want Syria to stop any assistance to Palestinian factions that might violate the cease-fire agreed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Washington also wants Syria stripped of any regional bargaining chips before it starts peace talks with Israel.

Arab governments know well demands from the international community for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon are not prompted by concern for the aspirations of the Lebanese people. But, as one senior Egyptian diplomat said, "the Syrians are now in a very tight corner. They have not played their cards well recently. And all we want to do is help them cut their losses."

During the past 10 days Syria has been repeatedly accused of being responsible for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri. The accusations have been coupled with international and Lebanese demands for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and threats of political and economic sanctions if Damascus fails to deliver.

Following a US-French summit in Brussels this week, US President George W Bush and French President Jacques Chirac made it clear that they would do everything possible to push Syria out of Lebanon.

"Our shared commitment to democratic progress is being tested in Lebanon -- a once thriving country that now suffers under the influence of an oppressive neighbour," Bush said in his major policy address in Brussels on Monday. "Just as the Syrian regime must take stronger action to stop those who support violence and subversion in Iraq, and must end its support for terrorist groups seeking to destroy the hope of peace between Israel and Palestinians, Syria must also end its occupation of Lebanon," he added.

Since Hariri's assassination Lebanon's increasingly vocal opposition has gathered wide public support for their demand that Syria withdraw. The opposition stresses that Syria can either pull out in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559 or under the 1990 Arab League sponsored Taif Agreement. According to 1559 Syria has to completely pull out of Lebanon. Under the Taif Agreement it has to pull out only to Al-Beqaa.

In an interview published yesterday Lebanese Defence Minister Abdel-Rahim Mourad stressed his government's commitment to the Taif Agreement, saying any other measures would require an amendment of this agreement, "something we cannot contemplate given the current state of tension".

Getting Syria to honour the Taif Agreement, cooperate with the UN in its investigation of Hariri's assassination, restrain Hizbullah, deny Palestinian factions assistance and demonstrate more cooperation with the US across its border with Iraq -- in return for an end of threats made against Damascus -- is the package several Arab capitals, including Cairo, Riyadh and Amman, are trying to get Damascus to agree to.

Following a lengthy conversation with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on Tuesday President Hosni Mubarak sent Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman to Damascus yesterday to discuss the details of the actions the Syrian government will need to take to defuse the wrath of the international community.

"We are not trying to pressure Syria. We are trying to convey the very disturbing signs of the storm that we see in the making," said a senior Egyptian diplomat on Tuesday.

To help Damascus save face the Arab League is boosting efforts to provide an Arab umbrella beneath which Syria could carry out the re-deployment of its troops in Lebanon.

In discussions on Monday informed sources say Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa made no secret to Assad, and his Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa, of his concerns. Following the talks in Damascus Moussa announced that the Syrian president "supports an inquiry in the assassination of Rafiq Al-Hariri" and that he is "committed to proceed with the implementation of the Taif Agreement".

The announcement was first refuted, then confirmed, by the Syrian minister of information.

"The Syrians are not clear about how they want to deal with the increasing international pressure," says one Cairo-based Arab diplomat, "This is what is going to make it very difficult for any Arab initiative to actually pick up."

Others fear that disputes within the Syrian government could lead to Damascus promising one thing and delivering another. Syrian sources in Damascus have told the Weekly that conflicting views of how to deal with the crisis beset not just the government but society. While some believe Syria needs to pull out, or a least significantly redeploy its troops, others argue it would be a strategic miscalculation that might create chaos in Lebanon and encourage Israeli military action.

Arab capitals are now trying to encourage Damascus to steer out of harm's way. "We do not want Syria to repeat the mistakes of others," said one senior diplomat.

But concern remains that there are those within the Syrian regime that do not appreciate the gravity of the situation.

"Some in Damascus seem to think that it is a passing problem. We tell them they are much mistaken."