Fox in the Americas

Over the past two weeks Vicente Fox has met with Presidents Abel Pacheco of Costa Rica, Alejandro Toledo of Peru and Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, assuring them all that his historically close relationship with George W. Bush gives him an opportunity to broker US policies that could benefit the entire region. Fox has made the same pitch to over a dozen of his Latin American colleagues. No one yet has turned down his offer to broker a new US-Americas relationship.

For the Central Americans, Fox's brokerage has taken the form of a boost for Plan Puebla-Panama, but the stakes may be higher among the South Americans. Mexico has applied for associate status in both the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), and the Andean Community, and Fox and President Chávez have continued their talks on proposed cooperation between Pemex and the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA. The two net exporters of crude oil would like to develop their joint refining capacities.

Mexico already has a free-trade agreement with Venezuela and Colombia (the G-3) and a bilateral one with Bolivia. In his recent meeting with President Toledo, Fox urged the Peruvian to join one of those agreements so that Mexico might broaden its participation in the Andean Community. He has made the same proposal to the Ecuadorians and has urged Venezuela and Colombia to include Panama in the G-3. And as more and more South American countries inch toward a leftist regionalism while Washington tilts to the imperial right, Mexico's centrist government may have a new and different role to play. Fox is becoming a point man of sorts in the region's attempt to forge a less antagonistic relationship with Washington.

Many of the South American countries would prefer to negotiate this rapprochement collectively, perhaps as Mercosur. Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim has said that "for better or for worse" hemispheric integration is inevitable, and that it would be best for the South Americans to negotiate with their powerful northern neighbor as a group. The Brazilians are thus promoting US-Mercosur negotiations, and the Mexicans, to be on the safe side, are pushing for membership in Mercosur. This group now consists of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay as full members. Chile, Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru have associate membership and should Mexico join, it would presumably play a key role in those collective negotiations.

However, Mexico's leadership may be affected by the trade agreement signed last month between Mercosur and the Andean Community. The agreement lays the groundwork for the imminent creation of a South American Community of Nations, a group that would include every country within the South American continent. The proposed community would have a population of more than 360 million and a gross domestic product of US$800 billion dollars. South American presidents and foreign ministers will meet on December 7 in Cuzco, Peru, to form the new group. This may further encourage collective South American negotiations with Washington, strengthening, perhaps, the brokerage hand of Brazil at the expense of Mexico.

"This is a step forward in Latin American integration and bargaining power, especially with other economic blocks," said Amorim, as he emphasized that regional integration remains a Brazilian priority. The main objectives of the community are to foster political, economic and infrastructural integration and to reaffirm the need for a multilateral approach to development with social inclusion and full respect for international law. Some members, especially Brazil, believe the group will help dilute US power in the region and improve the bargaining position of each individual member.

As for Fox, at the top of his wish list is a decent migratory pact with the United States. He is hoping his role as honest broker in the Americas will earn him that reward from Washington. There are an estimated six million undocumented Mexican immigrants now living in the United States, supplying a demand for low-wage US labor and easing the pressure on Mexican underemployment. These undocumented workers fill several economic needs and both governments say they would like to regularize their status. It is in the interest of neither government to stem the flow, though each faces tricky internal politics.

With the US elections over, Fox apparently feels the time is ripe for the pact, which may well materialize as the kind of "guest worker" agreement long touted by Bush. Whether the pact reaffirms the kind of "development with social inclusion" envisioned by the South American Community of Nations depends very much on the degree to which Fox feels bound by the ideals of his South American colleagues.