The Future of US-China Relations

In the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11th, the US government turned to China, not with a particular strategic agenda, but with the hope that the nation, like other great powers would be “united by common dangers” and “common values.” A few years later, though, uneasy feelings emerged about China’s status as ally, with US officials raising concern about the nation’s increasing militarization, commitment to nonproliferation, regional hegemony in Asia and increased interactions with Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. Sensational press coverage about the impact of China’s “extraordinary demand on world prices of energy and materials” inflamed official disputes over trade balances and currency values, and the US reacted defensively to the prospect of Chinese rivals purchasing US companies. If tensions escalate between the US and China, Eastern Eurasia could slip into division and a new cold war. On the other hand, greater cooperation could lead to growth of the world economy, peaceful resolution of persistent regional disputes, and progress on global issues such as terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. No matter the outcome, it is likely that the US and China will have the world’s most important bilateral international relationship over the coming decades. Aaron Friedberg, scholar and former policy official with the Bush administration, analyzes in detail how the relationship could evolve as the Chinese political system undergoes transition – and suggests that any move from “constrained competition to direct confrontation” would disrupt trade and diplomacy with serious consequences for both nations. – YaleGlobal