Illegal Immigration to US Slows Sharply

Illegal immigration to the U.S. has slowed sharply since 2007, with the bleak U.S. job market apparently discouraging people from heading north.

The influx of illegal immigrants plunged to an estimated 300,000 annually between March 2007 and 2009, from 850,000 a year between March 2000 and March 2005, according to new study released Wednesday by the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research group.

The decline contributed to a contraction in the overall size of the undocumented population to 11 million people in March 2009 from a peak of 12 million two years earlier, according to the Pew analysis, which is based on data from the Census Bureau.

All told, illegal immigrants in 2009 represented 28% of the foreign-born population in the U.S. Nearly half of them arrived since 2000, according to Pew.

The latest findings come as the first of hundreds of National Guardsmen began arriving in Arizona this week following authorization from the Obama administration. And Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano announced Monday that the number of drones flying surveillance on the southern border would double by Jan. 1. The increased security has driven up the cost of border crossings, contributing to the drop in illegal entries.

The Pew study found that the flow of Mexicans, who represent 60% of all illegal immigrants in the U.S., plummeted to 150,000 annually during the 2007-2009 period, compared with the annual average of 500,000 during the first half of the decade.

"Not only do we see flows down; it's a steady downward trend in the last four years," said the lead study author, said Pew demographer Jeffrey Passel.

Mr. Passel, who previously worked at the Census Bureau, said the methodology he developed for calculating the illegal immigrant population is now used by the Department of Homeland Security. He arrived at his estimates using data on the foreign-born population in the Census's Current Population Survey and statistics from DHS on the number of legal immigrants admitted to the country.

The mortgage crisis and ensuing economic slump have slashed jobs in construction, tourism and other sectors that are the mainstay for low-skilled Latin Americans. Immigrants already in the U.S. are struggling, and word of their hardship is dissuading those back home from flocking to the U.S.

"People don't want to come now; they know the economy is bad," said Braulio Gonzalez from Guatemala, who has been scraping by as a day laborer outside Los Angeles.

The decrease in the flow of illegal immigrants reported by Pew is supported by new studies from Wayne Cornelius, co-director of the migration research center at the University of California, San Diego.

In 2009, the center found that potential migrants in Mexico were "two times less likely" to plan a move to the U.S. than in the pre-recession year of 2006. Among those already in the U.S., more than half said they had experienced a cut in work hours, according to the field research.

Ms. Napolitano noted earlier this week that Washington has dedicated unprecedented manpower and technology to combat illegal immigration. As a result, she said, the influx of undocumented immigrants was falling.

Mr. Cornelius and others experts say the business cycle, not tighter border security, has played the biggest role in the drop in illegal entrants.

"The intensity of U.S. border enforcement has continued to increase during the recession, but only gradually," said Mr. Cornelius. "What has changed drastically is the demand for Mexican labor in the U.S. economy."

Mr. Cornelius's research team found no evidence that border fortifications were keeping illegal migrants out of the U.S.: More than nine out of 10 succeed at sneaking into the country eventually, he said.

However, border enforcement has created greater demand for "coyotes," people who smuggle illegal immigrants across the border and transport them to a U.S. destination. Coyote fees have increased in tandem with bolstered enforcement.

Mexicans currently pay about $3,000 to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, compared with $700 in the early 1990s. The cost for immigrants from Central and South America can top $10,000, which they usually pay in installments after getting jobs in the U.S.

"Because the return on their investment to gain access to the U.S. labor market now looks much less certain, many potential migrants are postponing journeys until the economy grows again," said Mr. Cornelius.

Illegal immigrants represented 5% of the U.S. labor force last year, according to Pew. States where the housing market has been hardest hit saw the steepest decreases in their undocumented population.

The South Atlantic region, stretching from Delaware to Florida, showed significant drops. These states have been deemed new magnets for illegal immigrants, who began to bypass traditional gateway states in the 1990s, such as California and Texas, in search of opportunity further East.

In 2009, California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois and New Jersey were home to 59% of the undocumented immigrants in the country, compared with 66% in 2000. There has been no net growth in the undocumented population in California for five years, according to Pew.

President Barack Obama has asked Congress to send him legislation to create a pathway to citizenship for many illegal immigrants, as well as to further secure borders. Congressional Democrats had talked about moving forward earlier this year, but there has been no movement and the matter is widely considered dead for now.