Inspection of Weapons of Mass Destruction Should Be Universal

With world opinion turning against the planned US war against Iraq there is a crying need for the US to assure the international community that it is not seeking domination. Martin Shubik, a noted game theorist who has been a consultant to several American administrations, says the dangers to world civilization are far greater than most citizens appreciate. He advocates a whole new approach to transparency that might help reduce the world’s suspicion about the sole superpower. In this essay he calls upon Washington to propose a new mechanism for universal inspection of weapons of mass destruction and to offer to open its own inventory for inspection in concert with the disclosures of others. - YaleGlobal

Inspection of Weapons of Mass Destruction Should Be Universal

The United States has to assure the world that it is interested in disarmament and not world domination
Martin Shubik
Tuesday, February 25, 2003
Inspector at an Iraqi chemical weapons lab; US should open its labs, too.

NEW HAVEN: The self image of the United States is of a peaceful democracy willing to fight for its own freedom and willing to help others fight for their freedom. At this time in history the dangers to world civilization are far greater than most citizens appreciate. There are easily enough weapons of mass destruction to wipe out anywhere between 20 and 50 percent of the world's population, and with it to set back the course of civilization, possibly for several centuries.

 

As we denounce Iraq we run considerable danger in having ourselves cast into the role of a new type of imperialist power, more interested in domination than in our proclaimed purpose. Questions have been raised by many critics about the seeming inequality among states possessing different types of weapons of mass destruction. Why can the Permanent Five members of the UN Security Council - or for that matter India and Pakistan - possess nuclear weapons, but not Iraq? There have also been doubts about the truthfulness of countries who claim not to possess chemical or bacteriological weapons. Civil society organizations in the US and elsewhere have called for citizens' inspection. This suspicion and sense of inequity, combined with the general distrust of a sole superpower have fueled anti-American sentiment and even sympathy for Iraq. There is, however a completely different approach which could serve us well and would provide a way to turn the United Nations into a meaningful organization or even to provide a reason to marginalize it if it is unable work out a consensus on this vital issue.

 

A different approach would be centered on a universal inspection of weapons of mass destruction. A stepped up public awareness of the danger to humanity posed by the various weapons of mass destruction would be achieved by the official publication of a world inventory of these weapons. Such an inventory should be made common knowledge. I am not talking about disarmament, but about the knowledge of the quantity and national ownership of the weapons. There are many technical difficulties in the design of an inspection system which is even 99% foolproof, but the specifics can be solved as they are encountered in an ongoing inspection. What is needed to begin with is transparency.

 

The United States should bring this proposal to the United Nations, including an indication of its own willingness to have its weapons of mass destruction inspected and inventoried. This would cast a completely different light on our role in the preservation of world peace. We should offer a draft proposal with a suggested time table for individual national inspections, calling for each nation to specify when it is willing to consider international inspection. The immediate governing body of the inspection facility should be separate from the existing UN agencies where the Permanent Five members exercise decisive influence. Instead, the new body should consist of six or seven established small democratic nations with no weapons of mass destruction such as the Scandinavians, Swiss, Dutch or other states with a democratic heritage and relatively small population.

 

The proposal should call for an immediate response from China, Russia, France, the UK, Pakistan, India and other known and unknown atomic powers of any size. We are all aware of parliamentary stonewalling techniques, whereby a proposal is accepted "in principle" and then nibbled to death in committee. This proposal is not suggested as an alternative to the appropriate inspection and disarming of the Iraqis. This has been covered by previous UN resolutions and needs to be enforced. However this proposal could be brought as a demonstration of American good faith in taking the first steps in the international control of weapons of mass destruction by offering total transparency about its own inventory in concert with the disclosures of others. By submitting this proposal prior to any military action, unilateral or otherwise, in Iraq, the United States would be able to make clear its concern for the eventual control of weapons of mass destruction over the whole globe.

The difficulties in establishing a viable program of inspection are enormous, but it is needed for world safety. The first step requires that an initiative be started at the United Nations. The overall problem is world survival. The situation in Iraq is important and must be dealt with, but it must not be confused with the basic problem, of which it only part.

Martin Shubik is the Seymour H. Knox Professor of Mathematical Institutional Economics at Yale University. A game theorist and a specialist in strategic analysis, he is the author of about twenty books.

© Copyright 2003 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization