IT Firms in for Rough Ride Despite Rebound

IN A few years, it will be almost impossible to find any devices that do not come equipped with wireless technology, because of growing demand to be always connected.

This, coupled with flourishing mobile applications like picture messaging, means wireless devices will be the norm, technology research firm Gartner said yesterday.

The explosion in wireless technology was one of the trends predicted by the firm for the coming year.

Another growth area predicted by Gartner was Linux, the open source operating system, which is set to gain a bigger market share.

Linux, said Mr Ian Bertram, vice-president at Gartner Asia Pacific, is poised to give the Unix system, long held as a more stable and reliable server platform, a run for its money.

He added: 'There is a lot of hype about Linux attacking Windows operating systems, but we don't see that as much as on Unix.'

The information technology industry is also poised for a strong recovery as businesses step up IT spending.

Singapore, for instance, is expected to see 5 per cent growth in IT spending - to about US$8 billion (S$14 billion) - next year.

Globally, businesses will continue to outsource IT processes and services, creating a US$173 billion market by 2007.

But while there is huge growth potential in these areas, Gartner predicted tough times for other technology sectors.

One is the much-hyped third-generation, or 3G, revolution.

Touted by telcos and mobile manufacturers as the next big thing, it faces an uphill task as it will 'fail to achieve mainstream adoption in Asia-Pacific markets'.

Mr To Chee Eng, principal analyst for telecommunications for Gartner Asia Pacific, told The Straits Times that issues to be addressed include the high cost of 3G handsets and how much demand there is for data-intensive applications such as video streaming.

Another, bleaker, prediction: More than 1,000 companies will either be acquired by bigger ones or go bust as competition hots up.

Mr Bertram said: 'There's always consolidation in any industry. We can't sustain the number of vendors supplying the same solutions to the industry.'

But there is an upside: A reverse brain drain will help countries like China and India. IT professionals who lose their jobs when their firms go under will bring expertise back home. This will help firms in the region expand, creating more jobs.

'The Asia-Pacific is in an environment where we can actually benefit... While there is going to be consolidation, there's also going to be a move to where the best talent is, and often, you'd find it in the region,' Mr Bertram said.