It’s Time for Pakistan to Play a Larger Regional Role

ASIA has been in news lately, more so because of the alliances that the Asian countries are trying to build with their immediate and distant neighbours. The recent visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Brunei bears testimony to this trend of bilateral alliances.

The seemingly obvious reasons for this visit were to promote Pakistan's environment of growing economic prosperity and security. To this effect, a memorandum of understanding on counter-terrorism was signed and progress made on the negotiation of the Pakistan-Singapore free trade agreement (FTA). Also, it was decided that an 'early harvest' agreement will be signed between Malaysia and Pakistan in July.

There is no denying that Pakistan, with its growing economy and a disinvestment agenda, has a lot to offer. The country's GDP growth rate last year was a sizzling 8.4 per cent. Under the leadership of Mr Aziz, Pakistan is further opening its economy and welcoming foreign investors.

Investors, including from the region, are responding. In March 2005, Temasek holdings bought a 25 per cent stake in Pakistan's NIB Bank for US$46 million. Governments are also responding positively to Pakistan's initiative to move closer to the countries of South-east Asia.

For example, Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra assured his Pakistani counterpart that Thailand would extend support to Pakistan in its bid to become full dialogue member of Asean. Thailand also signed a protocol for the implementation of a four-year (2005-2009) Cultural Exchange Programme, which covered culture, sports, youth affairs, archaeology, tourism, education and media development.

Pakistan's contribution towards the war against international terrorism has earned it goodwill and prestige among the countries of the Far East and South-east Asia. Since these countries are themselves faced with terrorist threats, they have sought close cooperation with Pakistan to share intelligence, expertise and experience in combating international terrorism.

However, one cannot help but wonder how much of Pakistan's overtures to the region has to do with its need to 'catch up' with India in reaching out eastward. The impetus for greater co-operation between India and Asean can be attributed to India's 'Look East' policy, first advocated by former prime minister P V Narasimha Rao, starting in 1991. This policy was aimed at renewing political contacts with Asean, enhancing economic interaction and forging defence links. Successive Indian prime ministers continued the same policy with equal fervour.

India's 'Look East' policy has borne dividends. Trade between India and Asean grew from a mere US$3 billion in 1992 to more than US$12 billion by the end of 2003. It is expected to hit US$15 billion by the end of this year.

Beyond trade, India is a strong political and security partner of Asean. It became a sectoral partner of Asean in 1992 and a full dialogue partner in 1995. In 1996, India became a member of Asean Regional Forum, aimed at confidence building, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy. And in 2003, India and Asean signed the Asean-India Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Agreement.

Pakistan, on the other hand developed its 'Strategic Vision East Asia' initiative in 2003.

Its trade and investment ties with South-east Asia are small by any standards, but there is potential for growth. Growth in trade between Asean and Pakistan over the last two years has been flat: it was US$341 million in 2002-03 and US$342 million in 2003-04.

Although Pakistan has a Sectoral Partnership with Asean, because its economic relations had not reached significant levels, it did not attain full dialogue partner status in 1996.

Pakistan had since been lobbying for not only a full dialogue partnership, but also for membership in the Asean Regional Forum. ARF membership requires the consensus of all members. Hence, Pakistan was invited to join the ARF in mid-2004, only after India also agreed.

India's willingness to accept Pakistan into the ARF can also be attributed to the new ground gained in Confidence Building Measures and negotiations between the two countries.

Pakistan realises the need to be more proactive and engaging in South-east Asia, lest it be left behind in the relationship building race with its neighbour. It cannot compete with India on the economic front but it can develop strategic alliances with the South-east Asian region.

It is evident that Pakistan wants to play a larger role in the region. The time is right for it to do so, as its economy is doing well, and its relations with India are improving. Therefore Pakistan now has the time and resources to divert towards the rest of the region.

In doing so, it will improve its economic, political and security links with the region, as well as make up for lost time.