Kashmir: Amid Tragedy, Peace Beckons

MADRID The idea of Kashmir as a cause that has spurred on three wars between India and Pakistan and festered like an open wound for half a century, preventing peace between the two countries, lies in the rubble and lost lives of the earthquake that devastated the region last week.

The quicker the leaders of India and Pakistan realize this and move swiftly to end the dispute, the quicker they will be able to muster international support for reconstructing the lives of stricken Kashmiris and turn Kashmir into a bridge of peace.

The largest earthquake in South Asia since the one that struck Quetta in 1935 has destroyed the political, economic and social viability of Pakistani-held Kashmir, or Azad Kashmir. According to the United Nations, some four million people have been affected by the quake, mostly Pakistani Kashmiris. At least two million are now homeless, and many have begun to trek south into other provinces of Pakistan seeking shelter. They are unlikely to return soon.

The fragile infrastructure is utterly destroyed, as are the economy, livelihoods, schools, hospitals and communities. There is no single large town or city left standing in Azad Kashmir. Seventy percent of the capital, Muzaffarabad, has been destroyed. Much as in the case of Afghanistan next door, rebuilding this region would have to start from scratch.

The quake's epicenter was also the epicenter of training camps run by Pakistani extremist groups affiliated with Al Qaeda, for thousands of Islamic militants from Kashmir, Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond. Nobody is likely to give out the death toll among militants, but it is bound to be substantial.

Many of these camps have been sustained, as President Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistani Army hedge their bets on whether India is really serious about the peace process begun two years ago. These camps represented, even more than Pakistan's support for the Taliban regime before 9/11, the army's 25- year-long dependency on Islamic militancy as a major tool of its foreign policy in the region.

The physical damage is less in the Muslim part of Indian-held Kashmir, but there too the known death toll is mounting. However the political fallout for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is only just beginning.

Indian Kashmiri Muslims have lost anywhere from 50,000 to 100,000 people in the 16-year insurgency that has seen horrendous acts of barbarity carried out both by the militants and the Indian Army. For Indian Kashmiris, the earthquake and New Delhi's slow response to the tragedy is perhaps the ultimate example of Indian government neglect, perfidy and lack of concern.

Longstanding Indian attempts to legitimize the government of the State of Jammu and Kashmir in the capital, Srinagar, as the official government for all Kashmir is also foundering in the rubble of the earthquake. In fact, the complete incapacity to help the victims has exposed the two governments in Srinagar and Muzaffarabad as mere puppets of their masters in the national capitals.

Moreover, India has stalled over the peace process in the past two years, confident that it is far stronger than Pakistan and does not need to grant concessions. Therefore India has refused to discuss the Kashmir issue until a long - almost infinite - period of "confidence building measures" takes place. The Kashmiris were getting fed up with this Indian foot-dragging even before the earthquake.

Now that Kashmir itself has been physically devastated, no one can return to the status quo ante. Once the immediate humanitarian crisis is in hand, the international community will have to face how best to help in rebuilding, rehabilitation and long-term aid.

It is highly unlikely that the big Western donors are going to help reconstruct the past - nor should they. In fact, Western states now have more of a say in determining peace in Kashmir than ever before, and they should use that clout.

The huge military buildups on the Line of Control between the two Kashmirs, divided families, unending poverty and political uncertainty, training camps for militants and everything else that has gone wrong in this blighted land since the subcontinent was partitioned in 1947 has to end now.

India has to discuss a solution for Kashmir with Pakistan and Kashmiri Islamic and nationalist groups. It can no longer rest its case on the subterfuge that the puppet government in Srinagar is the one and only government for all Kashmiris. Pakistan's military has to finally end its support for militancy, act like a normal army and bring the curtain down on its dual-track policy of pandering to Islamic extremism while insisting it is the West's best ally in the war on terrorism.

Ultimately, of course, there will be no territorial solution to this problem. Both sides now know this, and even Pakistan's most die-hard generals realize there will be no repartition of the Line of Control and that India will not yield an inch of Indian Kashmir.

What is possible now is an honorable peace settlement not for the sake of satisfying national egos, but so that both countries can claim they did the best for the long-suffering Kashmiris. Today, nobody can oppose a settlement that helps the Kashmiris get back on their feet. This could encourage Western donors to help rebuild this region as a modern, dynamic part of the subcontinent that could set an example for the rest of India and Pakistan.

For the first time, instead of firing over the shoulders of the Kashmiris, India and Pakistan have the chance to really help them. Musharraf and Singh have to realize that this is not just an opportunity or even a duty to the victims of the devastation - they have no other choice. The past is now another country.