Knock-on Effects will be Global if Iraq Carries on Downhill

WE ARE in the season of American electoral politics. It is also a period of waiting. Waiting, with some sense of foreboding, for the unfolding of events that may have been planned by terrorists to coincide with the American election - and, who knows, for a test of nerves by China in the Taiwan Strait? Also, waiting for new policy initiatives to deal with the stalemate in Iraq as well as the war against terrorism.

In this uneasy lull, it is worth taking stock of the implications for global and Asian security if the situation in Iraq deteriorates further.

The most obvious consequence of the war has been the boost it has given to international terrorism. Terrorism and Iraq were separate issues before the United States-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. Now they have become intertwined, as the foreign and Iraqi Islamic militants seek to turn Iraq into a new base for jihad.

A rethink on Iraq is taking place in Washington. Any premature US withdrawal which looks like a strategic defeat for America will almost certainly make the world a less safe place.

It could also have serious implications for Middle East stability and energy security. Already radical Islamic groups espousing Al-Qaeda ideology have taken on the Saudi regime, following a call in April last year by Al-Qaeda to attack Arab regimes that assisted the American invasion and occupation of Iraq.

The terrorists in Saudi Arabia are using tactics similar to those used in Iraq. Though different groups, they are part of the same jihadi network. If they can establish a strong base in Iraq, the threat to Saudi Arabia - and also to Jordan and Yemen - will increase significantly. Last month, Jordanian Prime Minister Faisal El-Fayez said 'the Arab nation in general is facing a ferocious terror campaign, particularly Saudi Arabia', while earlier, in April, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt referred to a 'great turmoil' unfolding across the Middle East.

An unstable Gulf region could threaten the world's oil supplies and hence economic growth prospects. East Asian countries heavily dependent on imported oil would be particularly vulnerable.

The effects of an energy crunch may well extend directly into geopolitics, by leading to intensified rivalry between the major powers to secure new energy supplies. There are disputed islands and areas in the East China and South China seas with gas reserves or potential oil deposits which could become points of conflict between major powers or among regional countries.

The Iraq situation has ramifications for a number of major- and middle-ranking powers in Asia. The prospect of a US defeat in Iraq, or a perception of defeat, could raise doubts about its will to uphold the current security order in the Asia-Pacific. It could push Japan towards significant re-armament and South Korea towards closer alignment with China.

In South Asia, Pakistan took a historic turn by breaking with the Taleban and joining in the war against international terrorism. A failure to stabilise Iraq would give a boost to radicalism and terrorism in the entire Afghanistan-Pakistan-Central Asian region and make it more difficult for Pakistan to stay on this course. The ultimate nightmare scenario of Pakistan's nuclear arms getting into the hands of Islamic radicals would then loom large. India would have much to lose from any strengthening of radical Islamic forces in the region: The insurgency in Kashmir would intensify with a vengeance and India-Pakistan relations would plummet.

Finally, the effects of a deterioration in Iraq would be felt in South-east Asia. There has been an Islamic revival in the region since the 1970s, much of it in a more conservative direction. An increase of Islamic radicalism and terrorism in the Middle East would be viewed with serious concern in several South-east Asian states, though the bulk of Muslims in the region are moderate.

One can perhaps already see an effect in Thailand, in its Muslim-majority provinces in the south, though local factors also contributed to the recent eruptions there. The Pattani United Liberation Front and the National Revolution Front are said to be implicated, together with some radical elements espousing a salafi, or traditional, jihadist ideology. So far no links have been uncovered between them and the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) terrorist network, which has used south Thailand in the past for transit, refuge and as a venue for meetings. However, in this day and age, it would be wrong to look for clearly defined organisational and command links; rather, Islamic terrorist and militant organisations operate as loose networks, linked to each other only through ad hoc mutual logistical support and interpersonal relations.

A deterioration of the security situation in south Thailand could provide the JI with new opportunities to strengthen its relationship with separatist groups there, following the pattern it established in the Philippines. The situation also has the potential of straining Thailand-Malaysia relations in view of the many cross-border movements of people in the region.

In conclusion, though American policies have contributed to a deteriorating security situation in Iraq, Iraq is no longer just an Iraqi or American problem. It has become a world problem requiring close international cooperation.