Leakgate Scandal Threatens to Distract Bush

WASHINGTON - A PRESIDENT distracted by investigations into possible White House involvement in the unmasking of a CIA spy could take his eye off the ball, particularly in the area of foreign policy, analysts say.

There are fears that the indictment of Mr Lewis 'Scooter' Libby, former top aide to Vice-President Dick Cheney, may do to President George W. Bush what the terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001, had done.

After the attacks on the World Trade Center, the President was viewed as focusing so much on the war against terrorism that he neglected key foreign policy matters relating to North Korea, China and Taiwan.

'It could happen again,' said Mr Dana Dillon, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

'The President and his people will spend a lot of time answering questions about his advisers instead of addressing other policy issues,' he noted.

What has made it worse is the President's plummeting approval ratings in national opinion polls.

Said Mr Ted Carpenter, a foreign policy expert at the Cato Institute in Washington: 'The administration is already in a very weak position in terms of public support for its handling of foreign policy.'

Mr Libby, Mr Cheney's long-time chief of staff, has been accused of obstructing justice, perjury and making false statements in connection with the leaking of the identity of CIA covert agent Valerie Plame.

He resigned from his post last week.

Mr Libby, who will appear at a court hearing tomorrow, and his former boss, Vice-President Cheney, were deeply involved in President Bush's foreign policy decisions.

Said Mr Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington: 'When any administration goes through a massive internal prosecutorial investigation, it creates an immense distraction.'

In this instance, the impact will be greater 'because of the strong role that the Vice-President and 'Scooter' Libby have played on the foreign policy front,' Mr Ornstein said.

Now, of course, the need to devote time to fending off further allegations in the spy investigation is likely to affect the Bush administration's ability to do this.

However, some analysts view that development in a positive way.

That is because Mr Cheney's group has generally advocated hardline positions in dealing with countries such as Iraq, Iran and North Korea.

And in matters concerning China, they are known to have urged a strongly pro-Taiwan stance.

Their demise, or at least temporary sidelining, could lessen such hardline views.

For instance, the recent progress in the six-way talks seeking to curb North Korea's nuclear programme is said to be due partly to the diminished influence of Mr Cheney's group.

Their dogmatic stance towards Pyongyang has been replaced by a more conciliatory position adopted by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Dr Rice, who enjoys a close working relationship with the President, has now been given more latitude. She has become the most popular member of Mr Bush's Cabinet and recent opinion polls have given her approval ratings of around 70 per cent.

President Bush languishes at less than 40 per cent. So there is speculation that he will try to draw upon Dr Rice's popularity by launching foreign policy measures that will move attention away from the spy scandal.

For instance, when he visits North-east Asia later this month, he may try to launch some initiative with China or make some new offer to North Korea.

Unfortunately, few experts believe he has much hope of success.

Said Mr Dillon: 'Bush may be looking for a foreign policy issue to get his administration back on track, but there are no easy issues for him to use.'

'A breakthrough in North Korea requires North Korean cooperation. That does not seem likely.

'And the Chinese have no reason to cooperate to save George Bush.'

Indeed, some analysts fear that if the President's declining public support worsens even more, due to the spy scandal, countries such as North Korea may seek to exploit his weakened position.

Mr Carpenter pointed out: 'Nations like Iran or North Korea may feel they can dig in their heels and that the US is in no position to adopt coercive measures given the weakness of the administration.'

Still, Dr Rice is expected to ensure that key areas of concern in Asia, such as North Korea, Taiwan as well as piracy and terrorism in South-east Asia, receive a high degree of attention no matter how the spy scandal unfolds.

Said Mr Carpenter: 'The administration is certainly going to try to go ahead on high priority items like the North Korean talks.

'While this spy affair is a distraction, it is not going to torpedo the operation of American foreign policy.'