A Little Red Dot and Tension Across the Taiwan Strait

THE one thing that will not change is our approach to foreign relations. We seek to be friends with all countries, especially our immediate neighbours and the major powers. We pursue win-win cooperation with all countries which are willing to cooperate with us. But that does not mean that we can always accommodate the views or positions of other countries. When our vital interests are at stake, we must quietly stand our ground. As (former Indonesian president) Habibie said, Singapore is a little red dot. If we don't defend our interests, who will?

This approach has earned us respect internationally and a network of good relations with many countries around the world.

From time to time we are put to the test. As a small country, we cannot afford to flinch. When Michael Fay was sentenced to caning for vandalism, then-president Bill Clinton wrote on his behalf, but we could not remit the sentence to cane. People in Asia noted our stand. When then-prime minister Mahathir Mohamad pressured us to change the water agreements, we stood firmly by our legal rights. We gave a full public explanation of the negotiations with Malaysia, and why we were justified in international law and were prepared to go to any international tribunal. But we still do our best to maintain good relations with the United States and with Malaysia.

Our closest neighbours - Indonesia and Malaysia - will always be of special importance. Indonesia is holding the second round of its presidential election soon. Malaysia has a new prime minister. I have known Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi for many years already. Under him, our relations have made a fresh start. I look forward to working with him to strengthen our cooperation.

We have had broad relations with China for many years, since the visit to Singapore of then vice-premier Deng Xiaoping in 1978, and we want to deepen them for the future. Unfortunately, our ties with China are currently under some strain, after the Chinese reaction to my recent visit to Taiwan.

MOST DANGEROUS PROBLEM

LETTER writers to our press, The Straits Times, Lianhe Zaobao and Berita Harian, show that they understand the Government's position. Nevertheless, let me explain to all why I needed to visit Taiwan, why Singapore is not changing its 'One China' policy and why I have become more worried about the cross-strait situation after my visit.

Why did I visit Taiwan? Because the cross-strait situation is potentially the most dangerous problem in the region. Economically, China and Taiwan are getting closer together. But politically, they are drifting apart. China has made it very clear that if Taiwan moves towards independence, China will not stand idly by. War may be inevitable.

In the current, very tense cross-strait situation, I will have to make some difficult judgment calls as PM. I wanted to understand the thinking of my friends and contacts. Some of them are now key leaders on both the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue sides. I needed to sense the shifts in tone and texture of Taiwan society. Only then can I make an objective assessment with conviction and knowledge. I cannot get this feel just by sitting in my office, reading reports and watching Channel News Asia.

If other countries are to take Singapore's views and assessments of the cross-strait situation seriously, they must view us as informed, impartial and balanced. If Singapore can in some way help prevent miscalculations by some key players, we will do our utmost to do so.

Why did I go in July? Because Mr Goh Chok Tong had told me that the changeover would be soon, in early August. So July was the only window for me to go before becoming Prime Minister. The Chinese protested that my visit to Taiwan was contrary to Singapore's 'One China' policy. But Singapore has always observed a 'One China' policy.

We took this position right from our independence in 1965. In 1971, we voted for the People's Republic of China's admission to take the United Nations seat for China. In October 1990, we established diplomatic relations with China. By then, China understood Singapore's position on Taiwan, that we historically have unique and important interests there which continue to be vital to our security.

Two years after Singapore established diplomatic relations with China, in 1992, I visited Taiwan. I was then already DPM. So my recent second visit to Taiwan does not contradict our 'One China' policy. Nor can it be seen as emboldening the Taiwan independence elements. This makes no sense, as the Taiwanese know well that we stand for 'One China' and are opposed to Taiwan independence. Indeed, we are very worried by the growth of Taiwan independence forces.

STRONGER IDENTITY EMERGING

SINGAPORE'S 'One China' policy will not change. A move by Taiwan towards independence is neither in Singapore's nor the region's interest. If Taiwan goes for independence, Singapore will not recognise it. In fact, no Asian country will recognise it. Nor will European countries. China will fight. Win or lose, Taiwan will be devastated. Unfortunately, I met only very few Taiwanese leaders who understood this. The problem is that it will not just be Taiwan that will be badly damaged. It will be a grave setback for the whole region. Our hopes for China to emerge peacefully and for the region to prosper through trade, investment and tourism will be shattered.

In any case, it would be the height of absurdity for Singapore to quarrel with China over Taiwan. The cross-strait issue is not a permanent problem. It will sooner or later be resolved - either sooner, if matters come to a head when Taiwan amends its Constitution, or eventually, if the situation evolves peacefully over two or three decades. China will continue to grow and Taiwan's economy will progressively be integrated with China's. This process is inexorable; there can be no other final outcome.

I came back from Taiwan more troubled than before I went. The ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party, is preoccupied with domestic politics. Its immediate priority is the upcoming Legislative Yuan election, where it will go all out to have the Pan-Green parties win an absolute majority of seats. The Kuomintang is preoccupied with challenging the results of the presidential election and investigating the shooting incident on March 19. Neither side has had time to think about Taiwan's longer-term future, how to manage relations with China, how best to reconcile the aspirations of the Taiwanese people with the realities of their international position.

There is a stronger Taiwanese identity emerging. More people are speaking in the Taiwanese dialect, or hollow whey. Before Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian became presidents, most Taiwanese people considered themselves Chinese. Now many think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. Some Green leaders told me that they believe a majority of people now support an independent Taiwan and that this has become a mainstream view. But Blue leaders questioned this.

The Taiwanese media are a free-wheeling and parochial lot. They thrive on juicy news and speculation. They chased me around when I was in Taiwan. I wanted to go out of my hotel for breakfast, to eat doujiang youtiao in a coffee shop, but I could not. The newspapers cover almost exclusively domestic news, with very little or no reporting of the international situation - nothing on Iraq, North Korea or the US elections.

IGNORANCE OF GLOBAL EVENTS

SO I do not sense that the Taiwanese people appreciate the international strategic environment, how preoccupied the US is with Iraq and the war on terror, and how interdependent the US and China are becoming. Many do not realise how rapidly China is transforming itself, and how major powers in the world are all repositioning themselves in response to a rising China.

Many Taiwanese believe China will not use force on Taiwan, even if it moves towards independence. They are wrong. When I visited China in May, my sense was that the cross-strait issue was at the top of their agenda and that China is absolutely serious. To China, the 2008 Olympics is a small matter. But preventing Taiwanese independence is crucial to China.

The Taiwanese press speculated that I had visited Taiwan to play a mediator's role between China and Taiwan. It showed they had not understood the situation. I am in no position to play any such role and have no desire to do so. The issue between China and Taiwan is not a misunderstanding that can be resolved by the good offices of an intermediary. It is a fundamental and deep contradiction which will require great skill and restraint on both sides to manage.

There is therefore a real risk of miscalculation and mishap. If a war breaks out across the strait, we will be forced to choose between the two sides. As a friend of both sides, any decision will be painful. But if the conflict is provoked by Taiwan, then Singapore cannot support Taiwan.

I will not change our 'One China' policy. But I had no choice but to make this visit to Taiwan in order to be confident that I can take the right decision for Singapore in a looming crisis.

We value our relations with China. I have met many senior Chinese leaders, most recently in May, and deeply appreciated their goodwill and friendship, and their readiness to cooperate with Singapore. This cooperation has always been on the basis of equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit. If it is affected, both countries will lose.

I regret that my visit to Taiwan has caused this severe reaction from China, which affected relations. I also regret the way the Taiwanese media chose to play up my private and unofficial visit.

This will not be the last time that our relations with an important friendly country will be strained. We strive for good relations with all countries. But from time to time, issues will arise. The big powers have their own interests and will exercise their influence to get their way. We may be old friends, but when our interests diverge - or even when our approaches to the same problem differ - they have to put theirs first, and so must we. This is a reality of the compelling pressures of national interests. We must remember this.

'When our vital interests are at stake, we must quietly stand our ground. As Habibie said, Singapore is a little red dot. If we don't defend our interests, who will?'

'Why did I visit Taiwan? Because the cross-strait situation is potentially the most dangerous problem in the region... I needed to sense the shifts in tone and texture of Taiwan society.'