Moderate Syrian Rebels Torn Between Giving Up, Joining Islamic Extremists

The Syrian civil war has raged for more than five years, a long time in a nation where half the people are under the age of 24. Intervention from Russia in recent months has given the Assad regime the upper hand. Assad troops are closing in on moderate Syrian rebels who are forced to decide: surrender and hope to settle with a brutal and corrupt government, team up with extremists, or somehow flee and join 4.5 million refugees or another 6 million displaced internally. “The fate of Syria’s moderate rebels is critical to American efforts in the region,” reports Sam Dagher for the Wall Street Journal. “If rebels quit the fight or join forces with Islamist extremist groups fighting the regime, the U.S. will lose leverage to shape the war’s outcome – and potential allies against Islamic State.” Diplomacy has failed so far, and France and Germany are urging a ceasefire for Aleppo. Major powers have their own agenda, and Russia and the United States disagree about a role for dictator Bashar al-Assad. One estimate puts the death toll at more than 400,000. – YaleGlobal

Moderate Syrian Rebels Torn Between Giving Up, Joining Islamic Extremists

Peace talks for Syria stall; cornered and weakened, moderate rebels ponder settlement with the Assad regime or fight alongside al Qaeda’s Islamist allies
Sam Dagher
Friday, May 6, 2016

YAYLADAGI, Turkey: Ali Othman is among a shrinking band of Syrian rebels in the mountains across from this border town who face an agonizing choice: accept a settlement with a regime they revile or fight alongside al Qaeda’s Islamist allies.


The Syrian army defector and his fellow fighters say they are weakened and cornered after enduring months of bombardment from Russian forces buttressing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.


Peace talks ended last month without progress amid a major escalation in violence in the northern city of Aleppo. On Thursday, a day after the U.S. announced a deal with Russia on a fresh cease-fire in Aleppo, Islamist groups targeted regime-held areas of the city with rocket, mortar and sniper fire, according to Syrian state media and U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.


“My wife begs me almost each day to leave the mountains,” Mr. Othman, 26 years old, said during a recent visit with his family in Turkey. “She keeps asking me: `Why are you still fighting?’”


The fate of Syria’s moderate rebels is critical to American efforts in the region. If rebels quit the fight or join forces with Islamist extremist groups fighting the regime, the U.S. will lose leverage to shape the war’s outcome—and potential allies against Islamic State.


Some rebel commanders close to the U.S. warn that the diplomatic deadlock and renewed airstrikes against rebel-held areas would push people into the arms of the extremists, including Nusra Front, an al Qaeda affiliate that, like Islamic State, is designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations Security Council and excluded from any potential settlement with the regime.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday the cease-fire would only succeed if moderate rebels separated themselves from Nusra and other groups opposed to a settlement.


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry agreed. “We want to have clarity here so that we are able to separate people,” he said.


In northwest Syria—where Mr. Othman and others are trying to make a last stand—and elsewhere, moderate rebels occupy the same territory as Nusra and say they are compelled to coordinate and share scant resources with it, especially when they all come under assault from the regime and its allies. Nusra and six rebel groups in northern Syria said this week they would re-establish a joint command center to avenge regime actions.


Both the regime and extremists are trying to lure rebels to their respective sides. Mr. Othman says Nusra is trying to recruit rebels with slick videos while the regime continues to drop leaflets on the handful of villages his group and others are clinging to in northwestern Latakia province, demanding they surrender or die.


Mr. Othman says his group’s backers have included the U.S., France, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But it now numbers less than 500 fighters, down from about 2,800 a year ago, he said.


“Many people in my group are either dead or maimed,” said Mr. Othman. “We can’t fight alone,” he added, referring to the need to cooperate with Islamist factions like Nusra even though he and others might dread them.


But Nusra’s opposition to the peace talks in Geneva has resonated with rebels who regard any concession to the regime as treason.


 “For sure, the Nusra Front won’t accept a deal that includes Bashar al-Assad and will continue to fight him,” said Khaled Walyo, a 27-year-old construction worker-turned-rebel in the same group as Mr. Othman. “I will be the first one to join it.”


He spoke in a rest house for wounded fighters, where he is tending to his 20-year-old brother, who lost both legs in October. He said he would return to the battlefield as soon as his brother gets prosthetic limbs.


Most rebels are hesitant to fight Nusra because its ranks are filled with men from their towns and villages. Many, like Mr. Othman, are Sunni Muslims who rose up against a regime dominated by Mr. Assad’s Shiite-linked Alawite sect.


Before popular revolts began in March 2011, Mr. Othman worked in an air-conditioning shop in Latakia. Like other young people, he protested what he saw as an unjust and corrupt police state.


Mr. Othman said that when the regime cracked down, his best friend died in his arms from a sniper bullet fired by security forces. Around that time, Mr. Assad’s regime accused third parties of shooting at protesters to inflame emotions.


Mr. Othman was conscripted for military service and sent to the capital Damascus, where he said he witnessed killings of civilians in rebellious Sunni areas. In 2012, he said, he fled to the mountains.

His rebel band aimed to liberate the mountain region and make it to the coast. He said he led many assaults against army positions, earning him the nickname Rambo.


“We were winning and people loved us,” he said.


In early 2013, foreign fighters from Nusra and Islamic State started flocking to the same mountains, luring many comrades with a religious pitch. Mr. Othman said he was turned off by that message.

By last summer, Nusra and its Islamist allies had scored gains against the regime. Mr. Othman and fellow fighters grabbed more territory in Latakia province. Mr. Assad appeared vulnerable.


In September, Moscow intervened. “Any hope we had of reviving the revolution was crushed by [Vladimir] Putin,” said Mr. Othman of the Russian president.


 “They should have given us at least antiaircraft weapons when Russia entered,” he said, referring to his group’s backers. “You say you are supporting me. So either go all the way or don’t even support me from the start.”


In 2015, Mr. Othman says, he and some 100 fighters from his group were among those flown to Qatar for monthlong training sessions.


Mr. Othman said rebels benefited from U.S. training and weapons, especially antitank missiles.

The U.S. later scrapped the program, saying most rebels wanted to fight the regime rather than Islamic extremists.


In November, Mr. Othman’s daughter was born in a clinic behind rebel lines. His father took the women and children of the family to Turkey.


Mr. Assad has offered amnesty to deserters. Mr. Othman said one of his rebel friends who crossed battle lines to surrender in late 2014, when an amnesty offer was in place, was imprisoned and his whereabouts is unknown.


“I have not come across a single case of someone giving himself up and going free,” he said.


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Sam Dagher is a senior correspondent for the Wall Street Journal who covers the Middle East.

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