Mood of Mistrust Shocks French Ruling Class

Jacques Chirac, reeling from France's rejection of the EU constitution, will today announce the appointment of a new prime minister in the wake of a referendum that revealed the extent of the country's social malaise.

The president spent half an hour with Jean-Pierre Raffarin, during which the unhappy prime minister is thought to have tendered his resignation. He then spoke for twice as long to Nicolas Sarkozy, prompting speculation that the sheer scale of the no vote may force Mr Chirac to offer his deadly political rival the job.

On a 70% turnout, nearly 55% of French voters on Sunday rejected the EU treaty, designed to make the 25-member union run more smoothly. Many commentators said the result arguably represented a greater disaster for France than it did for the European Union.

"France is presenting all the signs of serious social crisis," said Le Monde's political commentator, Raphaelle Bacqué.

"This was not just a rejection of Europe's institutions expressing itself. It was also the fear everyone feels about unemployment and globalisation. And it was the profound mistrust of the electorate for their political representatives."

Mr Raffarin, who in the closing days of a bitter campaign had repeatedly hinted that he would not be around for much longer, left the Elysée palace after his morning meeting with the president promising "developments later in the day ... or tomorrow".

One of the two leading candidates to replace him is Mr Sarkozy, France's most popular politician, who has called for "urgent and fundamental" structural reforms to haul France out of the economic doldrums and slash a jobless rate of 10% unchanged for more than 20 years. Mr Sarkozy's allies have made it plain that the leader of Mr Chirac's centre-right UMP party would want carte blanche to be "prime minister of France, not prime minister of Jacques Chirac" - a price the president, with just two years of his term in office left, may just be willing to pay.

The other candidate is the man sometimes dubbed "the son the president never had", Dominique de Villepin.

One Chirac confidant said yesterday, however, that the dashing interior minister was "too aloof, too patrician and, given the state we're in, not a radical enough change".

Commentators agree that if Mr Chirac - who faced a similar debacle in 1997 when he dissolved parliament prematurely, only to lose the ensuing general elections by a landslide - is to salvage anything from his 10-year presidency, he needs to mark a clean break with the past.

"He can't just shuffle the faces and continue the same old policies," said one political analyst, Dominique Reynié. "The tidal wave of protest was too strong.

"It crossed every political divide: the far right, the far left, the Communists, the nationalists, more than half the Socialists. It was wholesale, catastrophic rejection."

Francois Miquet-Marty of pollsters Louis Harris said the vote had revealed three distinct faultlines: a democratic one, between the French and their political class; a European one between the French and the EU; and a social one between the haves and the have-nots.

"It's a vote of fear, of self-defence and of self-affirmation," he said. "It's absolutely not an accident. From both the ruling party and the opposition Socialists, it is going to have to produce radical, fundamental change."

A TNS-Sofres opinion poll for Le Monde and TF1 television showed yesterday that the most important factor motivating the no vote - cited by 46% of all respondents and 51% of blue-collar workers - was the fear that the constitution would "increase the unemployment rate in France".

The second main reason for voting no, given by 40% of voters and 48% of blue-collar workers, was to express "a feeling of dissatisfaction with the present situation in France".

The third, cited by 34%, was the preceived neo-liberal, pro-market nature of the text itself. The entry into the EU of Turkey was not significant.

According to the poll, the only socio-economic categories to have consistently voted yes were managers and professionals (62%), university graduates (57%) and pensioners (56%). Fifty-nine percent of 18-24 and 25-34-year-olds, on the other hand, voted no.

Urban voters, particularly in Paris, which voted yes by a majority of 66%, were also far more likely to have backed the treaty than those living in the countryside or in the depressed, post-industrial north, where the no vote reached peaks of more than 60%, the poll showed.

"We are looking quite clearly at a major divide, a France that deeply discontented," Ms Bacqué said. "It's the same France that expressed its rage on April 21 2002, when it voted for the extreme right and the extreme left rather than the governing Socialist party, and let the National Front into the second round of the presidential elections.

"And it's a France that quite clearly feels that it hasn't been listened to since."

Roland Cayrol of the rival polling agency CSA agreed.

"It was the popular classes, the France that works, that voted no," he said. "It was more than 75% of all blue-collar workers and unemployed people, two-thirds of low and mid-grade employees, and a majority of self-employed.

"It's 'May 1968' in the polling stations - a France that the politicians had better start listening to."

The Political Fallout

The losers

Jacques Chirac A defeat for a project that was his brainchild and a monumental misjudgment of the country's mood leave the 72-year-old president trying to salvage something from the last 22 months of his presidency and highly unlikely to run for a third term.

Jean-Pierre Raffarin The most unpopular prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic will almost certainly be sacked this morning.

François Hollande The opposition Socialist party leader has been weakened by his incapacity both to control party rebels who defied an internal referendum to campaign for the no camp, and to persuade voters to follow his line. Has his work cut out if he wants to reimpose himself as the Socialists' obvious presidential candidate in 2007.

The winners

Lionel Jospin The former prime minister, who formally retired from politics in 2002, made two influential speeches for the yes campaign even though it was not enough, and topped a poll yesterday of the men the French would most like to see as the left's presidential candidate.

Nicolas Sarkozy The popular leader of the ruling UMP party campaigned for the yes camp, but far from defending France's prized social model called for fundamental reforms which he said the constitution would help. Could be appointed prime minister today, and remains by far the country's favoured presidential candidate on the right.

Laurent Fabius The rebel deputy Socialist leader and former prime minister proved an inspired and cunning leader of the left-wing no campaign. But he is now detested within the party and will need a near-miracle to win majority support for his ultimate aim, a presidential candidacy in 2007.

Dominique de Villepin The suave, aristocratic interior minister could also become premier, although not if Mr Chirac takes the radical reformist steps that commentators (and voters) have called for.

Philippe de Villiers Leader of the nationalist Movement for France, an unexpected star of the no campaign. Will probably be a significant factor in the 2007 elections - as will Jean-Marie Le Pen, the National Front leader, whose electorate voted 93% against the treaty.