The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China

The US National Intelligence Council says the number of people with HIV/AIDS will grow significantly by the end of the decade. The increase will be driven by the spread of the disease in five populous countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China—where the number of infected people will grow from around 14 to 23 million currently to an estimated 50 to 75 million by 2010. This estimate eclipses the projected 30 to 35 million cases by the end of the decade in central and southern Africa, the current focal point of the pandemic. The report points to the likely impact on China’s social stability. It says: “There is no sign that HIV/AIDS will become a lightning rod for widespread public discontent in either China or India. Nonetheless, the protests of rural Chinese who became infected through plasma sales suggest that anger with the government’s slow response will add to growing frustration in rural areas over rising unemployment, widespread corruption, and poor services.” The international impact of this rising crisis will include: a call to increase prevention and treatment funding from rich countries; a re-prioritizing of global health practices to the disfavor of other infectious diseases such as TB, malaria, and hepatitis; further pressure on pharmaceutical companies to lower the price and increase availability of their drugs. - YaleGlobal