Nigeria at Crossroads as Dual Elections Approach

At Tafawa Balewa Square in Lagos, a huge concrete parade ground flanked by statues of white horses and red eagles, the main opposition candidate in Nigeria's presidential election is ending his keynote address.

General Muhammadu Buhari, nominee of the All Nigeria People's Party, is speaking hours later than billed to a crowd that numbers many hundreds but occupies only a fraction of the venue's vast surface and cavernous stands. The general speaks for less than five minutes, saying nothing about his political programme and instead warning at length about the danger of ballot rigging by his opponents. "So you will vote for ANPP?" he concludes. "Good luck and thank you very much."

The tone of the rally is as good an indicator of any of the precarious state of Nigeria as it approaches landmark elections starting this week. Against a background of political violence, institutionalised corruption and mass poverty, Africa's most populous nation and largest oil producer is trying to do what it has never done since independence: hold two successive elections without suffering a military takeover.

Nigerians and international observers say that peaceful polls and moves towards a more progressive form of politics are essential to stabilise a country in danger of becoming the largest failed state in an already chaotic west African region.

"The elections have to hold and they have to come off," says one foreign diplomat. "It's going to take a generation for Nigeria to turn round to a different course."

Gen Buhari's ANPP and the People's Democratic Party of Olusegun Obasanjo, the president and favourite, are expected to dominate parliamentary elections on Saturday and the presidential poll a week later.

The make-up of the political landscape is a sign of how the country's history of dictatorship still looms large despite the return of civilian rule in 1999: both leading candidates are former army heads of state, although Mr Obasanjo did give up power to an elected government in 1979.

At the bus stop outside Tafawa Balewa Square, people are keen to talk about how the country has yet to escape the tradition of venal and corrupt rule that has gripped it since independence in 1960. Many Nigerians are quick to diagnose the systemic problems holding back the nation's 120m citizens. David, a driver, says he is a baker by trade but was forced to switch jobs because he lacked the access to capital to keep his business going. "People here are suffering," he says. "So I will continue praying that God will take control."

The willingness to speak out reflects the greater social freedom Mr Obasanjo is credited with introducing since the end of the brutal dictatorship of General Sani Abacha, who died suddenly in 1998. What has changed less, people say, is a dominant mood of desperation at the unreliability of services such as water and electricity and the dearth of healthcare and education systems.

Mr Obasanjo, who has travelled widely in an attempt to improve Nigeria's image, has made some progress in attracting investment but has struggled to change the country's reputation for arbitrary and opaque official behaviour. The results of the president's campaign to curb corruption in public life are viewed as patchy at best.

But for many Nigerians and outsiders, an eloquent feature of the country's continued dysfunctionality at the most basic levels are the petrol shortages it has suffered in the past few weeks despite being one of the world's top 10 oil exporters.

There is a sense that Nigeria is entering a period likely to be volatile even in its turbulent history. Reports of politically motivated violence from around the country are frequent. Marshall Harry, one of Gen Buhari's main campaign organisers, was killed last month by unknown gunmen.

The conduct of the electoral process has further added to fears of ballot rigging and fraud. The Independent National Electoral Commission, which has been criticised over problems with its voter registration programme, planned to begin distribution of almost 61m voters' cards only yesterday, four days before the first elections. The commission said it had removed 6m names from its list, mostly because of suspected multiple registration.

Against such a backdrop, many will see it as an achievement if an election takes place - although the atmosphere is likely to be one of cynicism about a political class seen as motivated largely by a desire to enjoy the profits of office.

As bats fly over an almost empty Tafawa Balewa Square, ANPP officials crouch on the twilit main stage to explain why Gen Buhari spoke so briefly and in such narrow terms. Buba Galadima, deputy national campaign co-ordinator, says the candidate's main popular base is in the north and that his primary aim in Lagos is to ensure the election is not fixed by his opponents. "It's a political strategy," Mr Galadima says. "I don't think the issues here are about policies."