Obama in Asia – Part II

BANGKOK: Before US President Barack Obama took power, it was customary to question US policy on Southeast Asia. Since the Nixon Doctrine in the 1970’s, the region often criticized the US government for lacking commitment and sincerity. President Obama’s visit last week to Singapore has put an end to the uncertainty. As the “first Pacific President” of the US, Obama has left no doubt that the US is back in Asia.

But doubts about the US’ role began dissipating in July when Washington decided to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia. Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya pointed out Washington’s recognition of the regional code of conduct would greatly augment US influence and role in the region. Since then, US policy on Burma has gained new momentum within Asean. At the first Asean-US Leaders’ Meeting in Singapore on 15 November, US President Barack Obama directly demanded the release of all Burmese political prisoners and Aung San Suu Kyi to Prime Minister Thien Sein who was among the ten Asean leaders. However, his call was not reflected in the leaders’ joint statement.

Initially, Washington’s re-engagement with Burma caused much anxiety among the Asean leaders. Since its admission to the bloc in 1997, Burma has yet to respond positively to pressures or joint appeals from the Asean colleagues. In early November, two senior officials from the US State Department led to a two-day exploratory trip to Burma. But there was no break-though as Washington continues to demand the military junta start a national reconciliation dialogue ahead of an inclusive, free and fair election scheduled next year.

The greatest untold fear among Asean members is the fast-moving development inside Burma among the various stakeholders including the junta, the opposition and the restive minorities. While the Rangoon regime completely ignored the Asean appeal to free Aung San Suu Kyi, it has wisely chosen to engage the US bilaterally by responding positively to the US overtures at least for now – knowing full well any tangible outcome of US-Burma ties would impact directly on the regional politics, in particular Asean and beyond.

Burma’s overture to the US highlighted Asean’s failure in resolving the key regional hot spot. Back in 1991 when Asean was first pitched against the West over this issue, Asean expressed confidence it could resolve the crisis by itself. After two decades, the Asean members still could not find a common approach to extricate itself from the Burmese quagmire. In Singapore last week, there was a sign of relief when US State Secretary Hilary Rodham Clinton made clear that the US would be serving as “facilitator” for the various stakeholders’ approach to Burma. She urged other countries such as China, India, Thailand as well as Asean to do more to ensure a creditable and inclusive election next year.

Deep down, US interest in Burma is focused on the proliferation issues and the regime’s relations with North Korea. In the policy review on Burma, US Assistant State Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Kurt Campbell, expressed concerns about the nature and extents of Burma-North Korea ties especially over the alleged arms trading related to ballistic missiles and nuclear technologies. During Obama’s week-long trip to Asia, he also urged Pyongyang to return to the Six-Party talks and continue the denuclearization programs.

Within Southeast Asia, North Korea’s nuclear threats were perceived differently. When the now defunct Korean Peninsular Energy Cooperation (KEDO) was in operation in mid 1995, only a few Asean countries understood its objectives. Indonesia was the only Asean member to join the executive board of KEDO created to set up alternate power generation facilities, while Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines all made a one-time contribution both financial and in kind to help fund the denuclearization programs in North Korea. Although Pyongyang joined the region-wide security group, the Asean Regional Forum, in 2000, it has not used the forum to advance stability in the Korean Peninsula or seek assistance from Asean.

It is interesting to note that after Washington’s signature to join the Asean treaty, its relations with the region have been transformed. The US has been given the same level-playing field as China or Japan enjoyed for the past two decades. Beijing and New Delhi were first to accede to the Asean treaty, which later on expanded to 27 countries. For Asean, the accession demonstrated the US seriousness and commitment to the bloc which allows the US to have a greater say and role in regional issues. For instance, the US successfully linked its inland water management projects in the Mississippi River to Mekong River’s riparian countries. After their first ministerial meeting in July, they agreed to meet annually. This is the first US initiative into the Mekong subregion – a traditional area under China’s influence.

After the forcible Chinese occupation of the Philippines-held Mischief Reef in the South China Sea in March 1995, which brought the first joint Asean condemnation of China’s intransigence, Beijing has been painstakingly mending the relations with Asean by showing respect and support to Asean as a regional player. Before the current US policy on Asean, China had one of the closest relations with Asean – the envy of other dialogue partners. Now with Washington’s greater assertive diplomacy, Beijing has been put on the defensive for the first time.

However, Obama was careful not to appear to be challenging China’s role in the region. In his Tokyo speech on Asia, Obama stressed the importance of China and Asean. He reiterated that the U.S. does not seek to contain China and the rise of a strong and prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of nations. Obama presented China as a strategic partner with which the US could cooperate on multilateral platforms to advance global peace and prosperity.

Obama also gave due recognition to Asean by stating clearly that the grouping will remain a platform for Southeast Asian dialogue, cooperation and security. It was not surprising that he has agreed to meet with the Asean leaders again next year. To prove that he meant business, he also endorsed the Asean centrality in the future construction of regional architecture, something which Washington used to be reluctant to do.

It is possible that the US would contemplate joining the Asean-based regional community building in East Asia in the near future. At this juncture, Asean and the plus three dialogue partners – China, Japan, and South Korea – have welcomed the US intention. New ideas of regional architecture proposed by Japan and Australia also envisaged the US as a key member.

What is new is the Obama administration’s attitude towards the US alliance and friends. Obama’s willingness to listen and consult more with them has already made huge differences. With his birth in Hawaii and childhood experience in Indonesia, Obama has pronounced himself as the first Pacific US president and has made known his preference for Asia. He favors a balanced and pragmatic approach that will focus more on multilateral undertakings than unilateral or bilateral ones of the past. Towards the end of Asean-US leaders’ meeting, Obama said: “Once nations competed for sphere of influence. That time is long gone, now we must seek collaboration among nations.” This fits into the Asean’s 21 century mindset.