Polls a test for Iraq policy

SYDNEY - The Australian federal election on Oct 9 will be the first real test of public support for Canberra's decision to back the United States over Iraq.

As a member of the so-called 'coalition of the willing' which joined American forces in the invasion of Iraq, Australia's electoral response could also signal the possible outcomes of the US presidential polls in November and next year's British general election.

While Australia's international policy is unlikely to dominate the six-week campaign - pocket considerations are of far greater relevance to most voters - the war on terror and Canberra's relations with the US remain issues of prime consideration in the corridors of power.

In launching the election campaign in the capital yesterday, Prime Minister John Howard touched on the importance of international security.

But Labor leader Mark Latham largely steered clear of foreign policy, an area which had created serious problems for him in the past. His earlier pledge to remove most of Australia's 800 troops from Iraq by Christmas if elected did not receive the domestic support he had hoped for.

And comments denouncing US President George W. Bush as dangerous and criticising his Iraq war decision drew a rebuke from Washington and widespread unease at home, where the US-Australia alliance is seen as a guarantee of safety in a troubled world.

Mr Latham has tried to hold his tongue since, concentrating on family-friendly policies such as health and education.

Since becoming leader last December after nine years in Parliament, he has moved to replace his aggressive style with a more statesman-like image.

A dedicated Republican who favours axing Australia's constitutional ties with Britain, Mr Latham has also promised that a future Labor government will get more involved with Asia.

'We want to re-establish Australia's strongest possible credentials and obviously get more involved in Asian political and leadership forums, where Australia - which has always been the Labor way - can punch well above its weight,' he told me earlier this year.

While Australians are traditionally conservative at election- time - preferring tried-and-tested leaders who can be trusted with looking after the economy - the circumstances this year are somewhat different.

First, there is the question over Australia's wisdom in joining the coalition of the willing.

Second, there is the Labor claim that Mr Howard won the previous election on a lie - by exploiting the 'kids overboard' affair, in which boat people were said to have threatened to throw their children into the sea.

The report turned out to be untrue, but it did not stop the Prime Minister from using the claim to bolster opinion over the need to strengthen Australia's border protection policy, which helped him to win a third term.

And third, there is the age gap between the two rivals.

At 65, Mr Howard is already beyond official retirement age, while Mr Latham, 43, is relatively youthful by comparison, even though he has suffered a cancer scare and was hospitalised with pancreatitis recently.

The Labor leader made it clear at his press conference in Sydney yesterday that he felt the likelihood of Mr Howard staying in office for the duration of his three-year term was small.

A vote for Mr Howard, he believed, would be a vote for his Liberal Party deputy Peter Costello, who has been waiting for the top job for two years.

What unites Mr Howard and Mr Latham is a hatred of each other's political parties and what they stand for.

Mr Latham is essentially a working-class boy made good, while Mr Howard comes from a fairly comfortable middle-class background.

Both are hardened warriors in the parliamentary bear pit, set on fighting to the bitter end.

That could make the next six weeks a riveting and bloody chapter in Australian politics.