Preventing a War over Taiwan

An escalation of the ongoing standoff between Taiwan and China could draw the already over-committed United States military into an unpleasant – and unnecessary – armed conflict. As political scientist Kenneth Lieberthal writes, political missteps on both sides have inflamed already heated cross-Strait tensions. China's warnings of military action have been seen as empty threats. Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's attempts to appease pro-independence and pro-status-quo voters alike resulted in confusion over his actual position, and, in turn, Beijing's mistrust. The United States has tried to placate both sides, but as nationalist sentiments simmer, these vague promises may prove inadequate to avoid military action. So what can be done to avoid worst-case scenario? According to Lieberthal: clarifying the definition of "independence." One of his proposals involves Beijing's shifting its understanding of the term to a more international definition. The other possible approach involves US facilitation of a 20- to 30-year treaty. "Given the relatively brief window of opportunity during which a stable framework agreement can be reached," Lieberthal concludes, "The Bush administration should move quickly." – YaleGlobal