Pyongyang’s Aims Hidden by Veil of Rhetoric

A journalist granted a rare interview with a North Korean minister several years ago asked why Pyongyang was so hostile towards the US, referring to the stream of anti-American rhetoric churned out by the communist state's propaganda machine.

"He started giggling," recalls Michael Breen, the journalist who conducted the interview. "It was as if he was saying: 'You shouldn't take the stuff we say so seriously'."

As the nuclear crisis involving North Korea escalates, Mr Breen's anecdote provides a timely reminder of the difficulties involved in interpreting the words and deeds of the world's most secretive state.

The risk of misunderstanding, the cultural clashes and the lack of direct communication between North Korea and the US are among the factors that make the dispute between the two countries so dangerous.

North Korea's public statements make alarming reading for anybody who takes them literally.

The state-controlled Korea Central News Agency generates a daily stream of tirades against the US "imperialists" and eulogises the strength of North Korea's 1m-strong army.

In a typical news item, the agency on Wednesday reported a visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to a naval base where sailors were preparing to sacrifice themselves as "human bombs" against the US.

"If you believed the KCNA, the Korean peninsula would be on the brink of war all the time," says Aidan Foster-Carter, a Korea expert at Leeds University.

North Korea's propaganda is mostly intended for domestic consumption by the country's 22m people, for whom state media are the only source of news. Pyongyang uses its control of information to stoke hatred of the US and secure loyalty to Kim Jong-il's military regime.

Last week, Pyongyang launched a nationwide anti-American poster campaign, with slogans including: "Give death to the US imperialists, headquarters of evil!"

However, while North Korean propaganda provides little insight into Kim Jong-il's real thinking, the message is often no more reliable when delivered directly by high-ranking officials.

For example, a South Korean envoy was told during talks in Pyongyang last week that North Korea had no intention of developing nuclear weapons.

Two days later, the plea of innocence looked hollow when US satellite pictures were reported to show that North Korea was accelerating its nuclear programme and could be just weeks away from producing weapons-grade plutonium.

"The only way to judge North Korea," says a western ambassador in Seoul, "is through its actions rather than its words."

Unfortunately, North Korea's actions can be just as confusing. US intelligence officials have not ruled out the possibility that the activity at North Korea's nuclear facilities could be an elaborate hoax to force Washington to the negotiating table.

Against this backdrop of deceit and confusion, it is impossible for the outside world to be sure of North Korea's intentions.

Analysts warn that the lack of understanding works both ways. Diplomats say that, just as westerners are alarmed by North Korea's rhetoric, Pyongyang feels threatened by the language of US President George W. Bush's administration.

Military experts warn that this mutual distrust increases the risk of accidental conflict caused by misunderstanding.

"History shows that most wars are started by accident," says a diplomat in Seoul.

"The risk is particularly great in Korea because you have two heavily armed forces poised against each other with little communication between the two sides."

North Korea has become less isolated in the past few years as contact has increased with the South and diplomatic relations have been established with most European countries.

However, communication between Pyongyang and the outside world is likely to remain strained as long as neither side believes what the other is saying.