Re-Popularizing Peace

Amid preparations for Palestinian elections, and talk of Syrian willingness to resume unconditional peace negotiations with Israel, Cairo is again emerging as an obvious go-between for Middle East peace. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman were in Israel for talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom regarding possible moves on both the Palestinian and Syrian tracks.

The senior Egyptian officials' visit was part of intensive diplomatic activities that included high-level talks with a senior Palestinian delegation that included acting Palestinian President Rouhi Fattouh, Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, and Mahmoud Abbas the elected chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the leading candidate in the Palestinian presidential elections that are scheduled to take place on 9 January 2005.

It also came a couple of days after a Sharm El-Sheikh meeting between Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and President Hosni Mubarak. The two leaders discussed a number of regional issues, including the current state of the Arab-Israeli file, with an eye on the upcoming Palestinian elections, the potential Israeli disengagement from Gaza, and Syria's desire to negotiate a peace deal with Israel on a parallel track.

Outgoing UN Envoy for the Middle East Terje Roed- Larsen was in Cairo, meanwhile, for talks with top Egyptian officials and the secretary-general of the Arab League. Larsen said "there is a momentum now, and we have to help each other. Egypt can play a role in pushing this momentum." Larsen, who was on his last Middle East tour, told the press that Syria was willing to pursue fresh negotiations with Israel. He also encouraged the Israeli government, during talks with its top officials this week, to accept the Syrian offer. "My position is this is a genuine hand of peace that is stretched out from Damascus," he said.

According to Egyptian diplomats, Cairo is currently trying to revive the "mood for peace talks in the Middle East". Egyptian and Arab diplomats said that for the past few years, peace talks have not been too popular. Four years after the suspension of Syria-Israel talks, and almost three years after Israel damaged its peace channels with the Palestinian Authority in the wake of attacking late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's Ramallah headquarters, they said, the time has come for a fresh start.

"Let's face it," said an Egyptian diplomatic source. "Sharon is there, and even if his internal problems become exceedingly difficult, and force him to call for early elections, chances are that he will get re-elected. And if it is not Sharon, then it is going to be either the ultra right Benyamin Netanyahu, or former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, both of whom have been showing signs of an increased taste for intransigence.

According to statements made by presidential spokesman Maged Abdel-Fattah following the four-hour Mubarak-Assad session on Monday, "Egypt is ready to play a role" in activating peace talks in the region on either the Palestinian or Syrian fronts.

But while Egypt is committed to exerting efforts on the Syrian front, it is the Palestinian front that seems to be set for immediate Egyptian attention.

According to Abul-Gheit, Egypt has a set of objectives to achieve. The immediate pre-requisite is to help the Palestinians get their house in order. This not only includes improving relations between the PLO- dominated Palestinian Authority and other factions, like the Islamist resistance movements Hamas and Jihad, but also involves helping the PLO and its Fatah movement re-build its internal structure in a modern and democratic fashion that allows for a process of shared but controlled decision-making. Egypt, sources said, has already been helpful in the highly peaceful power transition that took place in the wake Arafat's death. "We have offered Mahmoud Abbas every possible support we could," an Egyptian diplomat said, "and we are happy with the results so far."

This support, sources said, included a clear message to the Palestinian factions about the need to support Abbas and refrain from getting involved in uncalled-for power plays that will only serve the interests of the current Israeli government.

Abul-Gheit said Egypt was simultaneously trying to get a clear promise from Israel that it will facilitate the Palestinian elections, and not prevent any Palestinians from participating in the process. "It is also very important that Israel completely refrains from provoking the Palestinians militarily, to avoid embarrassing the current Palestinian government," he said.

To accomplish this, Cairo has also asked Washington to use its influence with the Sharon government. Egyptian officials said there was already a tacit understanding on this, provided that Palestinians avoid conducting any major attacks against Israel. "We believe we also have the support of Hamas and Jihad on this front," said an informed Egyptian source. According to this source, as well as several Palestinian officials, a tentative agreement to suspend all military action has already been reached with Cairo's direct help, and -- as some suggest -- pressure.

Moreover, according to Abdel-Fattah, President Mubarak offered the three- member senior Palestinian delegation he met in Cairo on Sunday Egyptian security assistance for the upcoming presidential elections. Abul-Gheit, meanwhile, said Cairo was also set to offer legal assistance and supervisors, provided that all sides concerned would guarantee their safety.

Egypt is also working to secure significant financial support for the new Abbas regime. "We are talking with the Israelis to secure due financial transfers to the Palestinian Authority," Abul-Gheit said. Egyptian and Arab diplomatic sources said agreements to provide financial aid to the Palestinians were already being considered with both the European Union and the rich Arab Gulf states.

Egypt's key task, however, on the Palestinian file involves convincing Washington to move faster towards a final status agreement. In his statements at the Arab League last Sunday following talks with its Secretary- General Amr Moussa, Qurei stressed that the Palestinians want to move on a final status deal, and are not ready to get into deals offering a provisional state. The Arab League supports this line. Sources suggested that during his talks with European foreign ministers at the Barcelona Process ministerial meeting at the Hague this week, Moussa said that overlooking the state of desperation and frustration the Palestinians are currently in, and further procrastinating their hopes for an independent and viable Palestinian state, would not be a good idea.

"We have 13 months to go until the end of 2005, the year that President George Bush had set [in June 2002] for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and this is ample time to solve all the issues. We do not want to wait until 2009 [the new date set by Bush for the establishment of the Palestinian state]," Qurei said following his talks with Moussa.

For some commentators, however, even limited progress on the Palestinian front would most likely mean that Israel would have very little interest in picking up efforts on the Syrian track.

On Monday, Abdel-Fattah suggested that Egypt was going to be exploring the possibilities with both sides. Sources speaking on condition of anonymity, however, suggested that the chances for a breakthrough are not very high on that front, since Sharon does not have a particular reason to offer Syria a peaceful hand at a time when it is coming under serious international pressure, even from its otherwise strong ally France, to pull its troops out of Lebanon.

"I think Egypt can play a role when it comes to saving Syria" from the harsh pressure it has been coming under, said Mohamed El-Sayed Said, the deputy director of Al-Ahram's Political and Strategic Studies Centre. According to Said, the revival of close Egyptian-Syrian- Saudi Arabian cooperation is essential for this objective to be achieved.

"Syria must be saved from Bush's neo-conservative lobby," he said. "If Syria becomes another Iraq, this region is likely to lose its balance, and things will get much worse."

Egyptian efforts on the Syrian front, along with a concerted attempt from Cairo to help the Palestinians and Israelis revive serious and meaningful peace negotiations, argued Said, could be essential in stabilising the region.

Pursuing democracy, he said, was the best way Arab states could confront the neo-con schemes for the region. "Democracy is one of the weapons the Palestinians need the most for their national struggle towards independence." he said. "Democracy is also the key that could open the doors for an American departure from Iraq."