Safe Landing

Washington's neo-con administration suffered a diplomatic defeat last week as Iran agreed to the European Union foreign minister's requests to sign the additional International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) protocol allowing unannounced inspections of its nuclear facilities, and to suspend its uranium enrichment operations. US decision-makers were anticipating Iran's rejection of the IAEA conditions or the expiry of the 31 October deadline set by the agency without any progress. Iranian non- compliance might prompt an IAEA request for the UN Security Council to review Iran's nuclear dossier, with the Americans likely clamouring for international sanctions at the least. Such an eventuality could have undermined the Iranian regime and perhaps set the stage for its ousting.

US officials make no secret of their desire to see the current Iranian regime go, which they include in their much-hyped Axis of Evil. Obviously, Washington wishes to bring Iran into its sphere of influence, which now extends from the Caspian Sea in the north to the Persian Gulf in the south -- an area containing over two-thirds of the world's most accessible oil reserves.

Washington banked on a less measured Iranian reaction to IAEA pressure -- neo-cons were hoping that the regime would respond negatively, engage in media warfare and generally fall into a trap leading to its overthrow. By accepting European mediation, Tehran has momentarily frustrated Washington in its search for an excuse bring about the Iranian regime's downfall. Commenting on last week's developments in Le Figaro, Powell told the French newspaper that the Iranian move was a good step, but that he still does not trust Tehran.

The enrichment of uranium is necessary for fueling nuclear reactors used for peaceful purposes as well as building nuclear arms. It is difficult to distinguish between the two and therefore no easy task to definitely prove or refute charges of nuclear weapons development. Iran needed to prove its innocence and did so only through a succession of diplomatic manoeuvres.

First, Iran threatened to pull out of the IAEA, before President Khatami suggested that all possibilities remain open. Shortly thereafter, Iran began a diplomatic offensive intimating that it might sign the additional protocol under certain "conditions" or "guarantees". Later, Iran let it be known that it would agree to the IAEA terms, but without a deadline. This was followed by a visit by the British, French and German foreign ministers, during which they pledged to support Iran in the following IAEA meetings and not to refer the matter to the UN Security Council, as well as promising to supply Tehran with the nuclear technology it needs for peaceful purposes. Finally, Iran announced its agreement to IAEA conditions in the presence of the European ministers, before the deadline's expiration.

Iran has made a safe landing on the runway of international diplomacy -- not just without disaster, but actually with some gains for Tehran. For one, Iran has deprived Washington from using the UN as a battering ram. Furthermore, the Iranians have deepened their alliance with Russia and consolidated political and commercial ties with the EU. Iran is now able to receive the conventional weapons and spare parts it had commissioned, whereas earlier Russia was hesitant about the deal. The Russian weapons deal includes equipment and spare parts for fighter planes, bombers, tanks and torpedoes. Iran also expects Russia to continue providing the Bushehr reactor with technological assistance.

President Putin must have felt a certain relief over the Iranian move. Iran is of great strategic importance to Moscow, particularly now that the Americans are pulling the Persian rug out from under Russia's feet in Central Asia and the shores of the Caspian Sea. Iran is a guarantee for strategic balance in the region.

For its part, Europe knows that the overthrow of the Iranian regime -- however enigmatic that regime may be -- would give the US near-total control of the international energy market. With Turkey courting the EU, Iran could become Europe's new eastern neighbour -- one the EU wishes to see stable. Its economic and commercial relations with Tehran are consequently growing in size and importance.

Washington insists that given Iran's vast oil and gas reserves it has no need for nuclear power. In a case of yet another American policy in the Middle East backfiring, it was Washington that introduced nuclear technology to Iran. During the Shah's rule, when Tehran was a regional partner with the US, former President Jimmy Carter's administration provided Iran with six small reactors that were the seeds for Iran's nuclear programme. Many developing countries are under the naive assumption that nuclear capabilities can magically transform them into developed countries and even shore up national unity. As a country with regional ambitions of its own, Iran most likely followed this line of reasoning, and the nearby nuclear arms race underway between Pakistan and India must have given Iran cause for concern.

Iran is committed to "temporarily" halt the enrichment of uranium, as the Secretary of Iran's Supreme Council for National Security Hasan Rohani said after his country signed the protocol. However, Iran has not completely abandoned its nuclear activities and is likely to wait and see how the US will behave in the future. One may consider this another gain, as Iran can decide to reactivate its nuclear programme at any time it deems suitable without fear of international sanctions.

The conflict between the Iranian regime and the Bush administration was full of lessons for both sides. The United States has learned that the Iranian regime -- for all its internal and democratic failings -- is adept at the international game, can forge alliances, and knows when to stop. The Iraqi scenario was not repeated.

More importantly, Iran's handling of the nuclear crisis proved the error of the Orientalist outlook of the US administration, which sees all countries in the Middle East as irrational. Perhaps the current US administration should do some soul searching before repeating such charges and understand that its national interests are not always applicable to the rest of the world. The Iranian regime pulled a narrow escape, but it should keep one thing in mind: diplomacy cannot do much to help with domestic troubles. True pluralism and a broad popular participation are the best guarantees for Iran's safety in the face of external threats.