Saudi Surprise

In an interesting way, the Saudis are bidding for the magic number in the race for the White House in November this year. In what seems to be a well- designed undertaking, the Saudis are trying to rescue George W Bush from his ill-fated venture in Iraq by declaring an initiative to send multinational Muslim troops to Iraq.

This commitment was announced at the end of what seems to be a sudden but well thought out undertaking which started with the sixth conference of states neighbouring Iraq in Cairo and ended with a meeting between the Saudi king and Iyad Allawi, the new head of Iraqi interim cabinet. The meeting was also calculated to coincide with the visit by Secretary of State Colin Powell to the region and to the Saudi capital.

The move is designed to salvage US President George W Bush, who is facing a flood of reports on his failures in Iraq which prejudiced his position in the race for the White House this year.

The real value of the Saudi initiative is that it could possibly provide the Bush administration with a convenient exit strategy at a time when this seemed missing. From the viewpoint of the incumbent president, an urgent exit strategy is by all means desperately needed to get the US out of what is turning to be an un-winnable war inside Iraq. He cannot pull American troops out without looking defeated in the "war on terror" unless Arab and Muslim troops can replace or supplement Anglo- American soldiers. Unfortunately, Mr Bush has alienated many Arabs during his tenure in office.

The Saudi package also included a shift in regional approach from suspicion to almost complete support of Allawi's government. The shift was visible in the conference of neighbouring states in Cairo in July, and was so unanimous that even Syria seemed willing to go along. The kingdom also declared the restoration of diplomatic relations and pledged $1 billion in economic assistance to the beleaguered Iraq.

This sudden support of Allawi's government came in the midst of a spate of deadly bombings which called into question prospects for political and civic stability in the country. Mr Allawi could use the support of a leading regional power in attracting further help from other regional governments and for giving his plan for restoring Sunni support a real chance.

The massive undertaking in support of the stabilisation of Iraq can work in favour of George Bush if it can show results before the impending elections for the White House in November. The difficulty is that the remaining time is too short to do the trick and the move is poorly packaged for the taste of the Muslim world. The Saudis struggled to persuade public opinion that the Muslim multinational force will replace the Anglo-American occupation forces and will prevent chaos. However, this is the least assured part of the story. A replacement force would have to be so massive in number, armament and capabilities that no Muslim country could afford it.

No Muslim country possesses the logistical capabilities needed to move and deploy heavy troops to Iraq. This can only be done with American support and it will have to include many Muslim countries, especially those with military weight. Given the difficulties of such an operation, it is much more plausible that a much smaller and lighter Muslim force will have to reckon for a role complementary with the Anglo- American military in Iraq. This latter scenario is much harder to swallow by a public opinion which is already boiling over with anti-American sentiment.

Some wonder why Arab countries would risk so much of their image and resources to extend a salvage rope to an American president who many believe has undermined Palestinian rights and Arab status in the global system.

The regional viewpoint is that the two candidates for the American presidency are equally bad, with only one major difference: that Arabs, particularly Palestinians, have already tasted the bitter harvest of Mr Bush's anti-Arab policies over the past four years.

In this sense, it is impressive that the Saudis managed to mobilise broad support for their initiative. Even Syria has expressed interest. One possible explanation is that, if the Saudi initiative works, it may reduce the potential for further friction between Arabs and the US in the region. This may even improve US relations with Syria. However, it would be impossible to find equivalence between a promise of lesser violence against Palestinians and Arabs, if such a promise exists, on the one hand, and paying in blood for rescuing a failed imperial operation in Iraq.