Saving Iraq

Against a backdrop of increased violence in Iraq, Egypt is stepping up its preparations for an international conference on the war-torn country. This week, President Hosni Mubarak was in Amman for talks with Jordan's King Abdullah II, over the agenda and possible conference outcome. Mubarak has also been conducting telephone consultations with other foreign leaders and is now considering visits to several Arab and European capitals before the convocation of the conference at Sharm El-Sheikh in the third week of November. "This conference is to support Iraq, the Iraqi people," said Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul- Gheit.

Abul-Gheit argued that to achieve this objective Egypt needs to secure certain crucial elements including a world consensus regarding the best possible way to support the Iraqis in achieving the objectives of security, stability and reconstruction. "Since 19 March 2003 [the eve of the US invasion of Iraq] and for months before, the world has been divided over Iraq ... this conference aims to create the so- far lacking world consensus on what needs to be done," Abul-Gheit said.

Yet while preparations for next month's Egyptian-hosted international conference are underway, Iraq's proposed delegation is not very representative. Iraqi diplomats in Cairo tell Al-Ahram Weekly that their government has made it very clear that it will not take part in conferences that invite political groups that it deems as involved in orchestrating, supporting or even tolerating the current wave of violence in Iraq. From Baghdad also, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hochyar Zebari said that his interim government "is the sovereign entity representing Iraq" and that Iraqis opposed to the American-backed administration would not be welcome.

The proposed conference has sparked a wide debate among participants over whether Iraqi opposition groups should be allowed to attend. France, which strongly opposed the US-led war in Iraq, has called for a broader gathering with an open agenda. US Assistant Secretary of State William Burns said after his meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday that the conference should focus on stabilising Iraq. "While it is one thing to provide a strong message of support for an inclusive political process among Iraqis, this meeting, as we understand it, is focussed on government representatives." Yet he also stated that inviting one group and excluding the other will be destructive to the prospects of the political process in Iraq especially if the national elections scheduled for January 2005 take place.

If things go as planned, the conference will bring together Iraq's neighbours, the eight major industrialised powers and China, the United Nations, the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Conference and the European Union. Washington is adding further weight by guaranteeing that it will send Secretary of State Colin Powell. Some of the countries invited to the conference, like Iran and Turkey, have also indicated that they will be sending representatives, but others have yet to make up their mind.

According to a draft final communiqué, a copy of which has been obtained by the Weekly, nations taking part in the conference will affirm their commitment to the sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity of Iraq and the principle of non-interference in Iraq's internal affairs. The document also calls on the parties concerned to take the necessary measures to ensure Iraq's stability, end all kinds of violence and intensify cooperation with all neighbouring countries and all concerned international parties in controlling the Iraqi border. Support for the Iraqi interim government's efforts to achieve democracy in Iraq is also expressed, welcoming steps it is taking to continue the political process by holding a general election before 31 January next year.

To deal with the gap of excluding Iraqi political forces opposed to US-backed Allawi's government, the conference will suggest convening another international conference under the United Nations in which all concerned parties participate. The document defined the Sharm El- Sheikh meeting as only one step towards achieving broader participation in the political spectrum of Iraq. However, it would still be making an important contribution to the overall success of the Iraqi political process.

Yet not all agree. Egyptian presidential spokesman, Magad Abdel-Fattah, acknowledged that disputes are continuing among the participating countries over the proposed conference agenda stating that "there are different views and visions on how to deal with issues to be discussed by the conference." He also mentioned that there had been a call for the postponement of the January elections.

Meanwhile, Syria and Iran have conveyed to Cairo a clear message that they expect the Sharm El-Sheikh conference to specifically blame the US-led foreign troops for the on-going state of chaos in Iraq and to ask for a timetable for their withdrawal.

The strongest opposition to the idea of broadening the conference comes from the Iraqi interim government whose leaders vowed to veto the inclusion of its opponents. The government seems to prefer a military solution to the insurgency in the Sunni Arab triangle and outmanoeuvre other disgruntled Iraqis. It is quite striking to listen to Iraqi officials who apparently think that a statement from world countries will put down the rebellion and end violence in the war-torn country. If this is all about elections then these officials should think twice before venturing into an election which will be boycotted by a large sector of the Iraqi populace. If balloting fails to give legitimacy to any future regime, violence will worsen and the country may descend into internecine strife and possible disintegration. While ending violence and ensuring law and order is necessary for rebuilding Iraq, an all- encompassing national political process is the only way to truly achieve this goal.

As debate over the conference continues, violence spirals all over with an increasing number of innocent Iraqis being killed. At any given hour, on any given day over the last few months, bombs have exploded, Iraqi army and police have been killed and civilians have been massacred. On Saturday night guerrillas dressed as policemen killed about 50 freshly trained Iraqi soldiers in eastern Iraq as the unarmed soldiers were heading home on leave. The soldiers were taken from three minibuses at a fake checkpoint about 95 miles northeast of Baghdad. Then forced to lie down in rows, they were killed, mostly with bullets to their heads. The carnage showed a high level of organisation on the part of the insurgents, including the probable receipt of inside information regarding the soldiers' travel plans.

The mass killing deals a severe blow to the American military and the interim Iraqi government at a time when top officials say Iraqi forces are being quickly trained to take over policing duties from the 138,000 American troops stationed there and to help maintain security for the general election in January.

Elsewhere, attacks by insurgents continue and US forces battle the rebels in Falluja in what seems to be the beginning of a massive assault. The outcome in Falluja will be critical to attempts by the US and Iraq's interim government to shape the country's future. In order to end the rebellion in Falluja and other parts of the Sunni areas the government need to give hope to the people there that they can freely join in the political process if they get rid of the fighters in their midst -- this particularly includes the forces of the Abu Musaab Al-Zaraqwi terror group and the remaining die-hard Baathists. Such a plan may have a psychological effect, but other plans to restore peace and actually start the re-building of Iraq are needed in order to create lasting security.

Prominent Arab affairs professor and commentator Ahmed Youssef Ahmed told the Weekly that it is too early to predict the outcome of this conference. According to Youssef, the criteria of success should be judged by the ability of the conference to come out with a clear position on a "full foreign troop pull out of Iraq in the very near future, and a complete participation by all Iraqi political forces in the coming January elections". Youssef warned that the conference should avoid ending up as a mere "frame" to provide support for the current policies in Iraq, especially since they have evidently failed in spreading security and stability in the Iraqi land.

The Egyptian gathering could be the world's last chance to keep Iraq united.