Schröder’s back is against the wall

With their rejection of a U.S. attack against Iraq without a further UN resolution, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and, to a lesser extent, his French counterpart, Jacques Chirac, have forced European Union countries to pledge allegiance, either to Washington or to Brussels.

Not that this question of allegiance is new. Countries such as Great Britain, which just sent 40,000 soldiers to the Gulf, have long kept the EU at arm's length, while embracing the United States both as an economic, political and military ally. In fact, British and U.S. soldiers have been bombing Iraq regularly for years. The conservative Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, has also worked hard at fostering his special relationship with U.S. President George Bush.

No wonder, then, that these two countries spearheaded the open revolt against Germany and France, convincing three other EU countries and three eastern European EU candidates to sign a declaration underscoring their full support of the U.S. Iraq course. The implications of this declaration, hammered out behind closed doors without the knowledge of Germany, France or Greece, currently holding the EU's rotating presidency, had even hardened Brussels diplomats gasping for air.

The declaration came three days after all 15 EU member states had agreed to recommend prolonging and intensifying arms inspections in Iraq, a joint stance that was supposed to express a unified EU foreign policy. More ominously, the declaration was made public just two days before the newly ratified Treaty of Nice came into effect. The vision of a common foreign policy was a key provision of the Nice Treaty. It bars any EU country from actions that contradict a common EU position on foreign affairs.

In public, Berlin has played down this act of revolt. In the halls of Brussels, its diplomats have been thinking aloud about the possible consequences. Why, they ask, should Germany remain the main financier of Europe, lend an ear to the monetary demands of EU hopefuls Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, all of whom co-signed the letter initiated by Spain's Aznar. Going further, the SPD EU representative, Ulrich Stockmann said: "These countries have to decide which starred banners they want to stitch their stars onto."

It didn't take eastern Europeans long to decide. Just hours after U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell held his long-awaited speech before the UN Security Council on Wednesday, 10 small eastern European countries slated for EU membership published a fresh declaration supporting the U.S. and its plans to attack Iraq. Addressing criticism from Brussels, one eastern diplomat remarked that “Old Europe,“ to coin the phrase used by U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, needed to learn to accept criticism.

Isolated internationally and in the EU, Schröder is counting on French support to uphold his position in the UN Security Council, where Germany this week assumed the chair as a rotating member. For now, the chancellor can breathe a bit easier. Chirac on Tuesday reiterated his reading of UN resolution 1441 and his demand to extend weapons inspections: “We are far from having reached the point when we can't achieve anything with peaceful disarmament," the president said. But he left open whether or not he would veto a new UN resolution permitting war, saying he wanted to decide “when the time comes.“ Still, it is doubtful whether Chirac will risk further burdening France's relationship with the United States.

If Chirac caves in to U.S. pressure, as seems possible, Schröder will stand alone in a hostile Europe. But a retreat from his antiwar position, a constitutional issue in Germany, could cost him the chancellery on a vote of no-confidence, similar to the dual-basing missile issue that split Chancellor Helmut Schmidt's party before his government fell on a no-confidence vote in 1982. Schröder is already fighting for survival after his party's twin election loss last weekend in Hesse and the chancellor's home state of Lower Saxony.

Experts commissioned by the German parliament say the constitution prohibits the country from allowing the United States to use its bases or German airspace for an attack against Iraq. But Schröder has already granted the United States overflight rights and the transportation of troops. "We have checked the legal situation and made our decision. And it's going to stay that way," said German Defense Minister Peter Struck.

Even if Schröder's coalition should survive such a test, the embattled chancellor might not. Economics Minister Wolfgang Clement is tipped to take charge if Schröder must go. But the opposition Christian Democrats are apparently already making preparations for German reconciliation with the United States, perhaps under a new government. Seeking to assure the United States of her party's loyalty, Christian Democrat party whip Angela Merkel plans to fly to Washington to pledge the CDU's unwavering support of that country's Iraq plans.