Six-Way Nuclear Talk Prospects Unclear

Pyongyang`s agreement to rejoin six-party talks on its nuclear program is good news but just how good depends on how well several explosive issues are defused.

The North`s decision to come back to the talks represents meaningful progress, but the prospect for the talks is clouded by the country still being at odds with Washington over some key issues.

South Korean experts presume North Korea decided to attend the second round of the nuclear talks out of fear prolonged tension would only invite U.S. hard-line policies and further harm its exchanges with other countries, especially on the economic front.

They also expect the outcome of the talks will hinge on how the two sides bridge a rift over the North`s possession of a nuclear weapons program using highly enriched uranium.

As well, they see a key to be a step-by-step solution for the North to dismantle its plutonium-based nuclear program in return for security assurance and economic assistances from relevant countries.

"For the United States, the bottom line is that North Korea agrees to verify its uranium-based nuclear weapons program and freeze its plutonium-based nuclear facilities," said Prof. Kim Sung-han of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.

"The talks will go smoothly if Pyongyang is ready to reveal the uranium program, but if it continues deny it, the talks will be ruptured."

The ongoing dispute erupted when U.S. officials said the North admitted in October 2002 to having the uranium program in violation of the 1994 Agreed Framework that ended a first nuclear crisis. But the North has denied the existence of the program.

A senior U.S. official has recently confirmed that the uranium program will be at the forefront of the talks agenda as the United States maintains it has hard evidence on the controversial program.

Some experts, however, were more optimistic about the talks, saying the concerned countries might already have reached some agreement on ways to settle the nuclear tension, considering the North`s past insistence on getting more concessions before sitting at the negotiation table.

"It is a positive signal that the North consented to rejoin the talks as it came after a series of unofficial or indirect contacts with the United States over the issue," said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Dongguk University.

Washington might have conveyed to Pyongyang a more flexible attitude than its demand the communist country`s first move be to scrap its nuclear weapons development before any U.S. concessions, he said.

Pyongyang has said it will freeze its plutonium nuclear program if Washington removes it from a list of terrorism-sponsoring countries and offers other forms of assistances.

If the second round of the talks fails to produce any progress as the first round did in August also in Beijing, the effectiveness of the multilateral dialogue could be threatened.

In this context, some experts urge the talks participants - the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia - should set a kind of a standing secretariat to tackle the nuclear issue whose solution is expected to require years of time.

"For a more stable dialogue process, the countries need to establish a secretariat or form working groups that will adjust major issues for official six-party talks," said Kim Yeon-chul, researcher at the Asiatic Research Center of Korea University.

Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuck indicated yesterday that the countries would agree on such working groups during the talks in Beijing from Feb. 25-27.

The agreement to reconvene the nuclear talks came after six-month diplomatic contacts among the participants following their first meeting in Beijing from Aug. 27-29.