Street Gaps

In an impromptu nod towards the mosaic of George Bush Sr that visitors to Baghdad's Rashid hotel must walk over on their way into the building, colourful drawings of the US and British flags, US President George W Bush, and British Prime Minister Tony Blair were placed on the ground at the entrance to the downtown headquarters of the Bar Association last week.

Visitors to the association were happily walking over the faces of the region's most reviled figures -- until Tuesday, when police, according to lawyers, removed the drawings, leaving only clear markings that something had been there.

The appearance and disappearance of the drawings reveal quite a bit about the current dynamic between government and popular sentiment vis-a-vis the US invasion of Iraq. As Cairo, a close US ally, struggles to maintain a delicate balance between its friendship with Washington, and its own population's anger at America and the war, a clear gap has emerged between "popular" and "official" Egypt. But even as the government seems to be taking great pains to close this gap, observers remain unconvinced that these efforts have met with much success.

Two weeks into the war, large-scale demonstrations continue to take place across the country on a daily basis. Although largely ignored by the media, demonstrations on university campuses in almost every governorate seem far from running out of steam.

Despite government efforts to contain public anger, there are no signs that popular outrage at the invasion, Israeli aggression against Palestinians, and, perhaps more significantly, their own government's policies, is bending to the government's will.

"No to American ships in Egypt's Arab Suez canal," cried protestors in front of the Press Syndicate on Saturday. "Down with every cowardly writer who devoted his pen to the Americans," shouted the crowd. "Look at mighty Iraq, and look at the Arab government's mighty failure!" Similarly, at Alexandria University, a large demonstration not only featured chants against the US, UK and Israel, but demands that the Egyptian government not allow US and UK warships to cross the Suez Canal. The protestors also called on the authorities to open the door to jihad, and carried a mock coffin on which the words "the conscience of Arab leaders" were scrolled.

On Tuesday, approximately 30,000 protesters held an anti-war demonstration in the main sports stadium of Alexandria. The rally was organised by several political forces but largely dominated by Islamists. Protesters chanted "arm us, arm us and to Baghdad send us" and reiterated "those who hit Umm Al-Qasr, tomorrow will hit at Egypt." In Damanhour, south of Alexandria, some 20,000 marched down city streets on the same day crying "America and Israel are one enemy, Iraq and Palestine, one cause."

Tens of thousands also took part in demonstrations at the universities of Cairo, Sohag, Zagazig and Tanta.

The flash point of these events was clearly 20- 21 March -- the first two days of the war -- when over 20,000 protesters occupied Tahrir Square at the heart of Cairo. These demonstrations ended with clashes between security forces and protesters, and a wide scale police clamp down that included the arrest of political and student activists, syndicate members, passersby and more disturbingly, two members of parliament. According to human rights groups, some 800 people were briefly arrested on 21 March. Eighty-eight of them -- including the two MPs -- were then remanded in custody for 15 days pending investigations.

Interior Minister Habib El-Adli issued a statement reminding anti-war activists and potential protestors of the 23-year-old Emergency Law, which strictly bans street demonstrations. The statement also made clear that a permit from the Interior Ministry had to be issued for any street demonstration to take place.

Alarming reports issued by local and international rights groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International about the treatment of the detainees and the alleged torture that some were subjected to, catalysed an international campaign aiming to both secure the release of those who had been arrested, as well as embarrass the government.

By Monday, 31 March, all 88 had been released.

The government, meanwhile, was busy playing catch-up. A government sponsored rally at Al-Azhar mosque following last Friday's prayers brought together unlikely bedfellows, namely the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, the ruling National Democratic Party and the opposition left-wing Tagammu Party. The demonstration was widely featured on state-run TV, with participants happily indicating that the protest was taking place in the street, "peacefully", without harassment by the police.

The rally was, however, boycotted by the civil rights, students and other groups that had played a prominent part in the Tahrir and Azhar demonstrations the week before. "We cannot participate in a demonstration that includes the [ruling] National Democratic Party (NDP), because of its position on the war," said Aida Seif El- Dawla, a leading anti-war activist and one of the founders of the Egyptian Popular Committee in Solidarity with the Palestinian Intifada (EPCSI). Over the past two years, the EPCSI has become more like a coalition of anti-globalisation and anti-war groups which includes -- albeit loosely -- several civil society organisations, the Tagammu, Nasserist and frozen Labour parties, journalists, lawyers, syndicates, independent activists and politicians.

Representatives of these parties and civil groups held a press conference on 1 April at the Press Syndicate to announce the route of an anti-war demonstration scheduled for Friday 4 April at Al-Sayeda Aisha square near Old Cairo. The route, which ends at the US Embassy, has marchers passing through Bab Al-Khalq square, Al-Ataba, 26 July St, Tahrir square and Qasr Al-Aini street. According to the organisers, the demonstration is significant not only as the first to openly defy the Interior Ministry's ban on street protests, but because it is also backed by a court order which provides judicial approval for its route. Copies of the "historic" court ruling, which were distributed to reporters, indicate that peaceful demonstrations are a constitutional right, which do not require any prior permit. The court also rejected the Interior Ministry's objections to the public's right to demonstrate because "its basic role should be to safeguard this right, not violate it".

A second anti-war demonstration is also set to take place at roughly the same time at Al-Azhar. This one, however, is being organised by the NDP and the Muslim Brotherhood. According to organisers of the Al-Sayeda Aisha demonstration, however, the government's parallel protest is merely an "attempt to thwart and ruin" theirs.

Mohamed Farag of the Tagammu Party also claimed that the Muslim Brotherhood had refused to join the Al-Sayeda Aisha march, which means Friday will witness the first highly visible division over Iraq between, on the one hand, the government and its new-found, if most likely temporary, allies, the Muslim Brothers, and, on the other hand, most of the country's other political forces.

Mustafa Kamel El-Sayed, a professor of political science at Cairo University and the American University in Cairo is sceptical, however, of the results.

"I very much doubt," said El-Sayed, "that the government has succeeded in narrowing the gap between public opinion and official politics." He explained, "people feel very strongly about the Iraqi people, and they wonder why the US government is providing additional economic assistance to Egypt," at this particular moment. Although the government has expressed reservations about the military action against Iraq, he said, it failed to condemn it, "and this falls short of people's expectations, and does not reflect either the intensity of popular feelings on Iraq, or the intensity of anger at the military campaign".

It is also why, analysts argue, political dissent has recently been expressed in unusually strident tones. A few days after the invasion was launched, a number of prominent intellectuals issued a brief statement expressing their disagreement with the government's position on the war in unusually harsh terms. This was followed by a longer statement signed by "Egypt's judges" blaming the current crisis on "corrupt" Arab regimes, and calling on all Arab and Islamic governments to "announce their animosity" for the coalition leading the war, "especially the US". The statement also demanded that Arab and Islamic governments refuse to host US military bases or offer any form of assistance to the coalition forces, while calling upon the Arab people themselves should use "all possible means to fight the current aggression". (see p. 19 for the full text of the judges statement).

Another statement issued by several rights groups warned the Interior Ministry that security officials who conducted or participated in the torture or mistreatment of arrested anti-war activists would be "prosecuted" at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

"This level of boldness [in criticising the government] is a result of everything being in such a state of decay, making it difficult to remain silent about it," argued Seif El-Dawla. As such, she said, she "wasn't surprised by it".

El-Sayed thinks the government has ample reason to worry. "The government is worried that demonstrations against the US will turn into demonstrations against its own policies, and I think this has already occurred."

According to Seif El-Dawla, the best advice would be for the government to actually "listen to people's slogans".