Two “Little” Palestinian States?

Hamas' victory-like language cannot hide the fact that the final outcome of its government is very negative, both at the political level and with regard to the living conditions of the Palestinian people. For his part, President Abbas has announced that he has the right to decide, and in doing so, he was backed by Fatah's leaders. Nevertheless, this announcement cannot conceal the great dangers that early legislative elections imply.

At the same time, long months of negotiations and talks among the two movements, the presidency and the government, have shown that many political and personal complications are hampering the formation of a national unity government. The latest deadlock has demonstrated that it does not take much effort to make the country slip into violent confrontations. Similarly, as experience has revealed, commissions, ceasefires, investigations and calls for self-restraint have not led to any effective result that may prevent resorting to arms. Moreover, the periods of calm and negotiations are not taken advantage of by any of the two parties with the objective of convincing each other of the inviolability of Palestinian blood.

The most optimistic observers do not rule out that the Palestinian situation is dominated by truces interrupted by clashes, while the realistic ones believe that the country is quickly moving toward confrontation. In the meantime, maneuvers, tactical slogans and conduct will intensify, and they, themselves, could cause more division. As a result, contending parties will forget the fundamental causes of this Palestinian internal division, and they will all believe that their victory requires the defeat of the other.

The internal Palestinian impasse is linked to the stalemate of the peace process, for which Israel is responsible. While the President believes that abiding by agreements, stopping violence, and returning to negotiations could break this deadlock, Hamas says that resistance is what will force Israel to put an end to its hostility. Nonetheless, the two parties have failed to forge a shared power relying on the concept of the two States, which is what the agreements are based on, as well as on the concept of maintaining their right to all forms of resistance. Because of the lack of the ways to negotiate, this failure has strengthened the Palestinian capability to find the means to put pressure on Israel, in order to return to negotiations and make it recognize the Palestinian partner. Also, it has reinforced the capability of starting a confrontation on the ground, and of spreading such opposition politically, thanks to foreign commitments.

Abu Mazen has tried to break this deadlock by announcing early elections. He has imposed on himself presidential polls that concern his right to resign, and has imposed legislative elections on other factions, especially Hamas, which refuse this step. The goal could be to increase the pressure on the Islamic movement in order to convince it of the conditions for the formation of a unity government - conditions that are linked to the crisis affecting the peace process. Also, the objective could go back to the voters in order to separate the two parties, while Hamas thinks it does not need such return until its legislative mandate is over.

The tactical goal has not been achieved; on the contrary, divisions have increased and a violent confrontation has been triggered. Subsequent efforts will now be made in order to absorb the aftermaths of such confrontation, to convince the parties to calm down, to withdraw gunmen from the streets, and to avoid clashes. After all this, negotiations, whose details have totally been consumed over the last months, will have to be resumed.

Despite everything, going to the polls will destroy any attempts to reach a cooling-off, given the fact that Hamas is holding onto its gains from the previous elections. In this case, each party will impose its presence in its region of main influence: Hamas in Gaza to prevent the elections, and Fatah in the West Bank to impose them. This scenario implies the danger of a geographical division between two authorities, and two little States opposed to each other in terms of ideology, policy and goals. In less than a year, the Palestinians are achieving what Israel has been unable to do since its foundation.