US-China Trade Deal Not Enough: Project Syndicate

If the US and China fail to negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement, bilateral trade, the economic relationship will erode as tariffs of up to 25 percent are applied on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the US, thus encouraging relocation of business activity out of China. Even if the two nations resolve differences over China’s state-owned enterprises and subsidies, the relationship could still go into decline, explains Minxin Pei for Project Syndicate. The trade war emerged over security concerns, including theft of intellectual property, and he cautions that “trading with a geopolitical foe is dangerous business.” Regardless of the outcome, he anticipates ongoing economic uncoupling, efforts to reduce overdependence and strategic vulnerabilities, and avoidance of technology transfers. China must do more than purchase soybeans, the essay concludes, and only a bold statement like eliminating military installations on islands in the South China Sea and increasing intellectual property protections can salvage the relationship. – YaleGlobal