U.S. faces challenges on three fronts

Comparing the world's power dynamics to a chessboard, renowned historian Paul Kennedy said yesterday that America risks being pushed aside if it does not address imminent challenges to its current dominant position.

America has to deal with three fronts: terrorists threatening national security, economic rivalries and declining cultural power in terms of global reputation.

The status that America enjoys as the undeniable super-power today may be on the decline, Kennedy suggested, as new economic powers move onto the chessboard, Asia in particular.

"Asia is one of the most puzzling concerns," posing military and economic challenges to the United States, he said. China and India both have experienced rising gross domestic product, and want to curb U.S. naval access to Asian seas.

Goldman Sachs' long-term financial projections conclude that by 2050, the number one world economy would be China, with the United States second and India catching up, he noted.

"China is the largest exporter in the world. American companies are consuming Chinese and Indian goods and outsourcing to India for cheaper services."

An empire's power can be measured in three areas, military, economic and political, said Kennedy, a recognized expert on empires. His bestselling book on the rise and demise of past great empires from 1500 to the 21st century has been subject to controversy and high acclaim, read widely by world leaders in the center of power.

His critical assessment of his home country, eight years after the publication of "The Rise and Fall of Great Empires," therefore stirred curious and rapt attention from the Korean audience at the IGE/Samsung Electronics Global Business Forum in the Lotte Hotel yesterday morning.

Kennedy came here to participate in The World Knowledge Forum, held from Oct. 10 to 12. Often grouped with historians dubbed as "declinist" who predict the downfall of U.S. hegemony, Kennedy is a prolific writer, columnist of various syndicates, and history professor at Yale University. He is the author and editor of 15 including "The Rise ..." and "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century."

On the military front, he said, the United States has an "imperial overstretch" - military overspending without adjustment of its national priorities and policies, a term he coined in his book.

"There is an increasing mismatch between U.S. commitments and ground forces carrying out those commitments," Kennedy said, citing examples of U.S. troop deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan, Germany and Haiti among others.

This is why, despite having the largest defense budget in the world, equal to the total defense budgets of 191 countries, America is still in danger from terrorism, which Kennedy termed "asymmetrical warfare." As the military grows bigger, terrorists will instead attack soft targets such as civilians and embassies "because you can't hurt America in the conventional military form."

To address military challenges, it is important to make a careful assessment which areas in the world are significant for U.S. strategic power. "I would try to identify areas that are not first-class interests but should be helped by international agencies," he said.

With regard to the deployment of U.S. troops in Korea, however, Kennedy said there needs to be "calibrated and measured plans" rather than instant withdrawal, after confirming a successful inspection of nuclear weapons in North Korea.

On the economic front, the European Union and the "BRIC's" - Brazil, Russia, India and China - have also emerged as new contenders whose unified efforts and individual powers threaten to overcome the U.S. economy, which suffers from overspending in wars and federal deficits.

The EU, acting as a unilateral power and single economic bloc, is able to use this advantage to check U.S. economic power. Kennedy gave examples of the EU imposing a $650 million fine on Microsoft, and threatening to increase tariffs on exports from U.S. states in response to a U.S. bill proposing tariffs on steel imports from the EU.

"The United States also faces federal deficits; wider in the past four years with the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Hurricane Katrina relief. These are the largest deficits ever seen in the world," he said, pointing out that the federal government omits from its published deficit figures its spending in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Louis the 14th was very economical compared to President George Bush," he commented.

On the cultural front, which once boasted global dominance with blue jeans, MTV, and global corporations, America has lost its "soft power," Kennedy said. He cited the war in Iraq, Afghanistan and images of people struggling in the wake of Hurricane Katrina as reasons for the waning image.

"The percentage of approval of U.S. policy and the United States has gone down, down, down," he said, referring to figures from The Pew Foundation, an international opinion poll.

To recover its declining international reputation, Kennedy emphasized the importance of the United States practicing "the politics of reassurance - assuring allies that you will not misuse your power, and create international organizations and instruments which can contain U.S. power," he said.

If he were a policymaker, he would strive to "work in a quiet and reassuring way to let other states know that the U.S. wants to be cooperative and multilateral," in other words, "a team player," Kennedy said.

This would entail revising negative policies toward international agreements such as the boycott of the Kyoto Protocol and the International Criminal tribunal, he said.

In a question and answer session, Kennedy was asked, "Which nation will replace America as the next super-power?"

Jokingly, he answered, "Ireland. It has beautiful scenery, kind people, and pubs that open all night..."