U.S.-N.K. Tension Unlikely to Lead to War, Experts Say

North Korea will continue its saber-rattling to give more weight to its demands in the nuclear standoff with the United States, but its militaristic demonstrations are not expected to bring about any major conflicts between the two sides, experts and officials in Seoul said yesterday.

They said the North's interception of a U.S. reconnaissance plane Sunday should be regarded as part of its recent series of calculated military moves to pressure the United States for negotiations.

"North Korea is purposely assuming a hostile stance to pressure the United States before Washington enters into a war with Iraq," said Prof. Ryoo Kihl-jae at the Graduate School of North Korean Studies, Kyungnam University.

Ryoo added that the North exhibits its military capabilities to gain the upper hand before it finally begins negotiating with Washington, justifying its actions by lodging protests such as against the Foal Eagle drill, an annual joint military exercise between South Korean and U.S. troops March 4-April 2.

Analysts here saw little possibility that Sunday`s incident will be followed by any major conflicts on the peninsula even though it is the most serious since the North Korean nuclear issue erupted last October.

"North Korea and the United States will not take any drastic actions because both sides are in a dilemma, right now," said Paik Hak-soon, senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.

Paik said Washington cannot afford to take military action against North Korea because it will grate with U.S. security interests in Northeast Asia.

"On the part of North Korea, its purpose in increasing tension is not to go nuclear but to get a security guarantee. It is well aware that the heightened tension will be detrimental to its efforts for economic development," Paik said.

Ryoo said a solution to the Pyongyang-Washington standoff may have to be delayed until Washington winds up its dispute with Iraq.

Meanwhile, Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said fears of a U.S. attack on North Korea are groundless.

"That kind of scenario is nothing more than groundless speculation," Jeong said in an interview with a radio program.

Jeong stressed that the official position shared by Seoul and Washington regarding the nuclear tension is that the problem should be solved peacefully and diplomatically.

"How could the United States ignore South Korea`s position and contradict it while pursuing its North Korea policy?" Jeong said.

The minister said the North`s interception of a U.S. reconnaissance plan is part of the North`s campaign to seek direct talks with Washington.