Visit Africa. Bring Checkbook.

The West has viewed Africa as an undifferentiated mess of war, disease, corruption and poverty for some time. The International Monetary Fund, however, estimates that sub-Saharan will grow at 7 percent in 2008, largely due to investment by Chinese and Indian companies. US and European experts are divided about Asian influence in Africa, whether India and China engage in mutually beneficial relationships or “neo-imperialism” that exploits natural resources. Jonathan Power, writing an opinion essay for the International Herald Tribune, argues that Asian investors view their African counterparts as partners. Foreign investment goes far beyond mineral and oil extraction, and includes building railroads, setting up manufacturing factories and buying stakes in African-owned banks. Asian companies plan for a sustained economic boom in Africa reminiscent of East and South Asian growth in recent decades. Of course, risks remain: African growth depends on increasing private capital inflows, manageable oil prices and continued aid. Regardless, Power suggests a majority of African states are on a development path that has eluded them for so long. Investors who seek partnerships that aim for sustainability will earn the highest returns over the long term. – YaleGlobal

Visit Africa. Bring Checkbook.

Jonathan Power
Thursday, November 15, 2007

The planned purchase of a 20 percent stake in South Africa's highly successful Standard Bank by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest bank by market capitalization, is the biggest foreign direct investment in South Africa since the demise of apartheid.

This signifies a degree of engagement by China that is way beyond the "resources grab" that many have accused China of in its recent dealings with Africa. This, as the Financial Times reported, "is evidence that China is looking for a deeper relationship."

For the ICBC this is an important step in its quest to become a global bank. Its chairman, Jiang Jianqing, says, "We are focusing on merger and acquisition in emerging markets in Asia and Africa because these places enjoy high growth rates and have great potential."

As Chinese and Indian investors almost pour into Africa one wonders if their European and North American competitors have woken up to the fact that Rip Van Winkle is waking up in Africa.

The fact that a top Chinese banker brackets Africa with Asia is one more sign that the Asians themselves see what is happening in Africa as a repeat of what happened to them 20 and 30 years ago.

They can see the potential while Western commentators, their spurious words tasting of sour grapes, point an accusing finger at China in particular, accusing it of planning to rape Africa as the Europeans did a century ago.

This is not rape, by any stretch of the imagination. This is business opportunity. Africa in many countries is on the way to booming and Africa is looking for marriages of convenience with willing investors in railroads, toll roads, ports, motorbike and cement factories. Already there are over 900 Chinese companies working in Africa.

The International Monetary Fund in its new "Regional Economic Outlook" estimates that next year the growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa should reach almost 7 percent. This is an average figure, pulled down by including the likes of the Congo, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Sudan. But most of black Africa is on a sustained upswing, helped by high commodity prices (which the IMF says has not been a critical factor) and successful debt relief.

It is happening, despite stagnant aid, because of increased private capital inflows and rising domestic investment and productivity. The significant decline in deadly armed conflicts has also helped. The ex war-riven states, Liberia, Sierra Leone and the Congo are growing at 5 percent.

Much of future growth will depend on an increase in the rate of private capital investment. This has tripled since 2003, although it is still far behind Asia's. At the moment Nigeria and South Africa attract two thirds of it but in a number of other countries such as Ghana, Kenya, Cameroon, Uganda and Zambia, foreign investment in the bond and equity markets is on the rise.

The upward pressure on oil prices has not yet hurt Africa. African countries have built up healthy reserves and have been able to draw these down to keep growth on track. However, if oil prices continue to rise the strain will become more apparent, although most countries carry reserves large enough to meet significant terms of trade shocks.

Despite the high oil prices inflation continues to fall and food supplies are improving.

If this advance continues, poverty will gradually fall, although only a handful of countries can hope to meet the UN target of halving poverty by 2015.

Nevertheless, the less these countries have to gear their fiscal policy towards addressing macro economic imbalances, the more they can spend on poverty reduction - improving social safety nets, education and health services. Tanzania, Ghana, Uganda and Rwanda are ahead of the pack on this.

All these countries could use more aid. But despite the promise to double aid at the Gleneagles G8 summit in 2005, they are not getting anything like it (although the increasing role of private global funds is plugging some of the gap).

Perhaps this has something to do with the Western perception of Africa as a war-torn, aid-wasting continent. Most of it no longer is. Ask the Chinese and Indians.

Jonathan Power writes on foreign affairs.

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