What the Bush Victory Means for East Asia

NEVER before has a presidential election in the United States so absorbed the leaders of Asia as did this one. A new president would have affected the prospects for the security and the economies of Asia.

Asia's main concern is security. So strong was the conviction that Mr George W. Bush was the leader to counter the threats from Islamic terrorists, North Korea's nuclear weapons and a possible war with China if Taiwan moves towards independence that Japan's and Australia's prime ministers, Junichiro Koizumi and John Howard, ignored diplomatic niceties and publicly declared, before the election, their strong support for the US President.

Many other Asian leaders privately shared these views but observed diplomatic reticence. Whatever reservations Muslim leaders in Indonesia and Malaysia had, they knew clearly where President Bush stood on key issues.

Greater vigour and resolve

DURING the next four years, President Bush is likely to pursue his objectives with greater vigour and resolve than he did in his first term. Those who opposed him - Iraq's Sunni insurgents, the Iranians, Syrians and some Europeans - will have to reconsider whether their antagonistic policies are worth the cost.

While US marines cleared Fallujah of insurgents, about 150 Iraqi parties registered for January's elections. There is no doubt that the Iraqis want to vote for their post-Saddam government, but before elections are held, terrorist safe havens in the Sunni triangle, like Fallujah, must be cleared out. Insurgents and foreign fighters will try to thwart any elections because thereafter their bombings will be attacks, not against foreign occupiers, but against a legitimate government voted in by Iraqis.

Leaders from neighbouring countries, the Arab League, the G-8, the EU and China, along with the UN secretary-general, met in Sharm El-Sheikh to endorse Iraq's elections. These leaders will give their full support to the new government in order to prevent the spread of instability.

Mr Yasser Arafat's death allows for the election of a new Palestinian president who, if he commands majority support, could open a window for negotiations for a two-state solution between the Israelis and Palestinians. All countries want the bloodletting in Israel and the Palestinian territories to stop. The situation is inciting Muslim radicals to terrorism, which will continue as long as things remain unresolved.

A democratically-elected government in Iraq is within the realm of possibility. Achieving a settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians is more difficult. Be that as it may, President Bush will have to spend political capital to do so. An elected government in Iraq and a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would transform the political climate in the Middle East. The Arab people would gradually push their leaders towards more open societies, less susceptible to fundamentalists.

For many years, Malaysia's government has tenaciously opposed the country's Islamic fundamentalists, not because Malaysia is a member of America's coalition of the willing, but because these fundamentalists threaten Malaysia's own power base. This is also true in other Muslim countries.

Following 9/11, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf repeatedly said that in order to protect 'Pakistan's national interests' he would support the US in its fight against the Taleban and Al-Qaeda. Now General Musharraf is the target of terrorist assassins.

No matter how many atrocities Al-Qaeda or Jemaah Islamiah may commit, they cannot take over the Christian West, Hindu South Asia and Buddhist East Asia. They can, however, overthrow moderate Muslim governments.

Therefore it is only a question of time before moderates clash with extremists in Muslim countries. If America, Europe, Russia, China and India stand solidly against Islamic terrorism, Muslim moderates will take heart, knowing that they have the world's backing when they face down fundamentalist ulamas (religious scholars) who preach hatred towards and death for the enemies of Islam - Americans, Israelis and many others the world over.

With Mr Bush's re-election, China is assured of continuity in US policies, especially those concerning Taiwan. It would make no sense for Taiwanese pro-independence leaders to provoke a war with China when US military resources are so stretched and when the US needs China's cooperation in containing North Korea's nuclear programme. China, therefore, has reason to welcome this second Bush term.

You may wonder why I, in Singapore, am so focused on Middle Eastern issues.

The reason is simple: Islamic terrorists are active in the southern Philippines and Indonesia. And since January this year, Thailand's three least-developed southern provinces, which are 78 per cent Muslim, have been in turmoil.

There were armed separatist uprisings in the 1970s, but no civilians were targeted.

Now Islamic terrorists have adopted Al-Qaeda's methods, indiscriminately assassinating Buddhist monks, shopkeepers, policemen and soldiers.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has blamed these terrorist outrages on Thai Muslim students who, when they studied abroad, had developed connections with Islamic radicals.

Only when Al-Qaeda and its Arab affiliates are seen to fail will their disciples in Asia lose heart.