What Next?

The July 1 demonstration in which protesters studiously avoided violence showed that they had learnt the lessons of Tiananmen, Senior Minister LEE KUAN YEW told The Washington Post's David Ignatius in an e-mail interview. Below is the full text of his replies:

YOU are one of the wisest China watchers in the world. What do you make of the recent street protests in Hong Kong, and the government's subsequent decision to delay the internal subversion law?

The size of the street protests on July 1 was much larger than either its organisers or Hong Kong government leaders expected. It was an expression of the Hong Kong people's unhappiness with their present economic and political condition followed by several months of fear and confusion during the Sars epidemic.

These made the anti-subversion law a trigger for this massive protest. The government had to delay the passage of the Bill because it did not have the votes to pass it after a member of Chief Executive C.H. Tung's (Tung Chee Hwa's) Executive Council, Mr James Tien, resigned and withdrew the support of his group of Legislative Council members.

Have the Hong Kong people, or the Chinese leadership in Beijing, lost confidence in C.H. Tung, and is a change of leadership in Hong Kong likely soon?

Beijing is unlikely to show any loss of confidence in C.H. Tung. I doubt if they will change the Chief Executive soon after mass demonstrations. This will encourage more such protests and make the situation worse.

Do you agree with critics of the law, who argued that it would undermine Hong Kong's special legal status, and thereby erode its competitive advantage?

I am not familiar with the Bill. However I doubt if any law passed in Hong Kong can undermine Hong Kong's special legal status which is founded on the Basic Law for the territory. What it can do is to inhibit or worry journalists and others who comment on China's security matters that are protected by secrecy laws.

What does Beijing's reaction to these events tell us about the new government of President Hu Jintao?

There is no reason for President Hu to register any reaction. In accordance with Beijing's practice, he will first get a thorough assessment of the situation, its causes and objectives. Then he will decide what to do.

Based on other evidence, such as its handling of the Sars crisis, how would you evaluate the new Chinese government? Do you think former president Jiang Zemin and his allies on the Standing Committee of the Politburo have had concerns about the course of the country and its stability?

Both the present Chinese leaders, President Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao, demonstrated resolute leadership in their handling of the Sars crisis.

After initial missteps that had allowed the epidemic to spread, they realised Sars posed a threat to their economy.

Managers and staff of foreign enterprises would leave and direct investments would also slow down; then their economic plans would go awry.

In an unprecedented move, they dismissed the Minister for Health and the Mayor of Beijing. They pulled out all stops to identify and isolate those suspected of Sars. Where Sars had been detected, whole hospitals, including health-care workers, were quarantined, as were large neighbourhoods in cities and entire villages.

Although it was just before their annual May Day holidays, they closed all holiday attractions that draw people together. By the end of June, about three months after they acted, the World Health Organisation lifted travel restrictions on Beijing.

Former aides of Mr Jiang on the Standing Committee of the Politburo shared in the credit that the leaders earned in handling the crisis. I do not know what the Old Guard thought of the dismissal of the Health Minister and the Beijing Mayor.

Are you concerned that the United States, tied down militarily in Iraq, may be unable to play an active enough role in Asia? Looking back, do you have new questions or second thoughts about Iraq?

Yes. The US may not have as much resources to handle a crisis if one erupts say in North Korea and/or if terrorists were to expand their activities in South-east Asia. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight in a post-mortem is useful only as a guide for future decisions.

I did not expect any major problems in knocking out Saddam Hussein. However I feared the many problems in restoring order and even greater difficulties in facilitating the setting up of a new Iraqi government.

But it turned out to be much more difficult. Iraq's infrastructure was rickety and has been rendered defunct by looting and deliberate sabotage. This is causing hardship and disaffection among Iraqis who had expected Americans to bring better times.

Putting this right and getting security restored will delay the implementation of the main agenda, the establishment of a representative government.

You have said that in the world of the Internet, greater openness is inevitable. If China can tolerate street protests like those in Hong Kong, does that mean China (including Hong Kong) may be returning to an era of greater tolerance for democratic dissent, such as existed before Tiananmen Square?

Street protests in China are not the same as those in Hong Kong. Since Tiananmen on June 4, 1989, Hong Kong has gradually developed a street protest culture where demonstrators studiously avoid violence because they know that this will bring out the troops.

The people in China have no such habits or culture. Once China's people take to the streets, it is likely to develop into a Tiananmen-type clash of wills.

It is significant that the Chinese media did not carry news or pictures of the Hong Kong street demonstrations on July 1.

What relevance, if any, do the recent events in Hong Kong have for Taiwan?

Beijing will have to be careful that pro-independence groups in Taiwan cannot use any mishap in Hong Kong to further work up feelings against reunification.

Anything that damages the credibility of the 'one country, two systems' will be a setback for peaceful reunification between China and Hong Kong. It is not in the interests of either China or Hong Kong to have things go wrong. There are three somewhat analogous precedents that the situation in Hong Kong may follow:

Will it be like the Solidarity movement in Poland, where peaceful protests, supported by the Catholic Church and Western governments, eventually forced the Polish communist government to yield power to Solidarity?

Or could it be like the way Beijing's leaders handled the Sars crisis, by dismissing the Health Minister and the Mayor of Beijing and taking immediate and firm steps to put things right?

Or could it be like Tiananmen on June 4, 1989? At the start of the demonstration, party general secretary Zhao Ziyang expressed sympathy with the students' call against nepotism and corruption. But when he asked them to disperse and they refused, the students crossed a red line.

They wanted to demonstrate their strength by preventing an expected meeting of (Mikhail) Gorbachev and Deng Xiaoping at the Great Hall of the People. When that red line was crossed, the elders in the Chinese Communist Party led by Deng Xiaoping, pushed Zhao Ziyang aside and sent in the troops.

The pro-democracy leaders who led this protest will have to think through which of these three precedents has most relevance to Hong Kong's position. Beijing is likely to act strictly in accordance with the Basic Law and not be seen to interfere. They will avoid making things more difficult for any chief executive of Hong Kong.

Whatever the twists and turns events will take in the coming months, Beijing has one trump card. Hong Kong's economy is increasingly intertwined with China's. Its factories are in Guangdong province and it has investments all over China.

Hong Kong hopes its economy will improve because of the special economic partnership agreement that Premier Wen Jiabao brought to Hong Kong on June 30. And Beijing has also lifted limits on the number of Chinese tourists visiting Hong Kong.

Any government in Hong Kong would have to safeguard Beijing's vital interests or risk losing Beijing's willingness to go that extra mile to help its economy.