Diplomat: How North Korea Could Win War With US

The United States may represent 36 percent of the world’s total military expenditures and North Korea does not approach 2 percent, with most military analysts assuming the smaller country would quickly be defeated. Such assessments focus on the quantifiable, such as hardware, rather than less tangible factors like leadership and motivation – overlooking military stalemates the larger power encountered in Iraq, Vietnam and Korea long ago. “The bottom line is that we must consider the possibility that Kim Jong-un has the means to re-create a military stalemate on the Korean peninsula and as a corollary ‘win’ a Second Korean War,” explains Franz-Stefan Gady for the Diplomat. He goes on to explain that North Korea’s strategy would rely on surprises, guerilla warfare, hybrid warfare, Blitzkrieg-like conventional warfare, possibly banned weapons and cyberwarfare with a range of targets. North Korean troops could be more ruthless and motivated than either South Koreans or Americans. Assistance from either Russia or China is another unknown. Casualties would run high. The war could be long and unpredictable. “Nonetheless, should a conflict break out, it is important to understand that this will not be a simple ‘shock and awe’ campaign ending with a bloody American victory, a leveled Pyongyang, and a chastised North Korea,” Gady writes. Military analysts must imagine and prepare for the worst. – YaleGlobal