Could Civilization Collapse? BBC

Internal challenges and divisions are more treacherous for civilizations than external attacks, suggests historian Arnold Toynbee who studied 28 civilizations. Overexpansion, environmental degradation and poor leadership helped ruin the Roman Empire. “Collapse is often quick and greatness provides no immunity,” explains researcher Luke Kemp. Greater size is not a protection, and Kemp describes how the Roman Empire’s territory of more than 4 million square kilometers shrunk by half in just five years and was gone less than 100 years later. “Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence.” The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk examines civilization lifespans and identifies the threats including climate instability, environmental degradation, inequality and oligarchy, complexity, war, natural disasters and even bad luck. Indexes as simple as temperature, GDP, income concentration provide alerts, and communities can take heed, innovating and practicing resilience – though modern trends of specialization and nuclear weapons add to challenges. Kemp concludes, “We are only doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past.” – YaleGlobal