Inevitable “Greater Depression”? Project Syndicate

Tackling problems swiftly, well in advance, tends to produce better results than waiting for crisis. After the 2007-08 crisis, governments failed to address imbalances and other structural problems. Nouriel Roubini, writing for Project Syndicate, anticipates a lingering depression throughout the decade due to economic risks long in play combined with an uneven pandemic response. He identifies 10 risks including unsustainable deficits and defaults combined with loss of income; aging populations in advanced economies and need to invest in health care systems; reduced demand with price collapses and deflation; unconventional monetary policies and currency debasement; broadening digital disruption and automation, with increased more inequality and populism; deglobalization and protectionism; increased China-US decoupling and tensions; and a new cold war, accompanied by cyber warfare. “A final risk that cannot be ignored is environmental disruption, which, as the Covid-19 crisis has shown, can wreak far more economic havoc than a financial crisis,” Roubani concludes. “Pandemics and the many morbid symptoms of climate change will become more frequent, severe, and costly in the years ahead.” The challenges require technological know-how, competent political leadership and stable international order. – YaleGlobal

Inevitable “Greater Depression”? Project Syndicate

Ominous and risky trends were around long before Covid-19, including debt, automation, inequality and protectionism – making an L-shaped depression likely
Nouriel Roubini
Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Read the article from Project Syndicate about 10 global trends that add to pandemic risks and could lead to depression during the 2020s.

Nouriel Roubin, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Global Trends that Compound Economic Risks of Pandemic: 	World Median Age 2008	28.5 2020	30.5. 	Global debt 2008	$100  2020	$257 .	Renewable Internal Freshwater (cubic meters) 2008	6575 2020	5900.  	% of Wealth Held by Top 1% 2008	42% 2020	46%
(Source: Statista, IIF,, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2019)

© Project Syndicate - 2020