In The News

We Won't Trigger Article 50 Until After 2017 – and That Means Brexit May Never Happen at All

Denis MacShane August 19, 2016
United Kingdom leaders are in no hurry to trigger action on Article 50 or begin formal negotiations to separate from the European Union. No planning has started. Likewise, other countries will hold back on negotiating new trade deals with the UK until a detailed understanding of separation is reached. “No-one in Europe wants to ‘punish’ Britain but no EU leader dare deny his or her own citizens...

Brexit Success Hinges on Global Goodwill

Simon Nixon August 17, 2016
British leaders’ cautious approach to Brexit demonstrates the challenges of withdrawing from tightly integrated trade. Analysts anticipate a cost of up to 6 percent of GDP, depending on whether the United Kingdom retains a relationship with the European Union or tries to trade on World Trade Organization terms. A new tariff schedule on WTO terms would require consensus of 160 members including...

China’s Glut, Exports Could Threaten World Economy

Börje Ljunggren August 11, 2016
China came to the aid of the stricken global economy in 2008 with record stimulus funds. But that stimulus injection encouraged debt and overcapacity in key markets like steel and aluminum, explains Börje Ljunggren, author and former Swedish ambassador to China. The country’s total debt has more than doubled, now exceeding 250 percent of GDP. China accounts for half of global output in steel and...

The End of Globalization? International Security Implications

T.X. Hammes August 5, 2016
Globalization has delivered countless benefits for individuals and societies. “Today, a combination of technology, politics, and social pressures seems to be reversing globalization,” explains T.X. Hammes in an essay for War on the Rocks. “While the new technology will continue to create wealth, it will favor developed countries. The increasing regionalization of economies and differences in...

Brexit Blues in Central Europe

Joji Sakurai July 28, 2016
Europe's opponents of immigration may be triumphant about Brexit, but the crowing won’t last long in countries that depend on the European Union for technical advice, aid, trade and foreign investment that allowed them to outperform the European Union as a whole. “To hear the rhetoric, one might assume that ‘Huxit’ or ‘Czexit’ – departures by Hungary or the Czech Republic – may be around the...

India’s Digital Revolution Poised to Propel Services

Nandan Nilekani July 26, 2016
India is poised to revolutionize the service industry, in such a way that borrowing, saving and transferring money could happen as swiftly as sending an email. This technological leap enables India to rely more on services and domestic consumption even as world trade is slumping. A nationwide government initiative encouraging financial inclusion and bank accounts, combined with biometric-based...

With Globalization in Danger, G-20 Double Down on a Defense

July 26, 2016
The world’s largest economies have prospered from globalization, yet G20 finance leaders must confront the growing opposition to trade and immigration among their citizens: “finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 put a stepped-up emphasis on fiscal and structural policies to boost growth, and renewed a pledge to promote inclusiveness,” reports Bloomberg News. The article...