Iran’s Strategy Is Working: Stratfor

After the United States abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – an international agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear weapons program – and reinstated sanctions, Iran remained defiant, this despite economic hardship accompanyng reduced oil exports and high inflation. The United States expresses a willingness to talk, but Iran refuses without some sanctions relief. “Over the past three months, the U.S.-Iran conflict has gone from Washington's campaign of “maximum pressure” against Tehran to Iranian provocations that called the White House's bluff (and brought the region to the brink of war in the process) to a French-tailored diplomatic opening,” explains Reva Goujon for Stratfor. Iran has continued to develop its nuclear capability while also showing muscle in the Persian Gulf, seizing an oil tanker and suspected of sabotaging others. Goujon explains how Iran’s strategies led to multiple outcomes: demonstrating the country can pose a credible threat, exposing US reticence for war and similar wariness among Gulf countries and US allies, and encouraging a French proposal for an oil-backed credit line. Talks are not scheduled, but both sides focus on negotiating strategies. A de-escalation in tensions would benefit the entire Middle East. – YaleGlobal