In The News

Anticipate Another Global Depression? FT

June 6, 2020
High employment rates accompany the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. Global economists assessed the possibility of economic depression for the Financial Time. Full recovery depends on availability of treatments and vaccines and maintenance of trust. Robert Zoellick, former World Bank president, reminds that the 1930s Great Depression caused more than economic pain: “It metastasised to a loss of...

Deglobalization Gains Momentum: PIIE

Douglas A. Irwin April 28, 2020
International trade was already in retreat before the Covid-19. The pandemic will test cross-border supply chains, alliances, investments, travel and other connections. Douglas Irwin, writing for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warns that protectionist steps to limit trade will slow or even reverse economic growth. He identifies recent eras of globalization: 1870 to 1914,...

Global Economy Without Cushion: Project Syndicate

Stephen S. Roach February 6, 2020
Global recessions are rare, but the world may have dodged one in 2019. The world posted GDP growth of 2.9 percent that year, far below the average 3.5 percent posted since 1980. Deviations from the trend signal a warning even for strong economies and corporations, suggests economist Stephen S. Roach with Yale University. “Unlike individual economies, which normally contract in an outright...

World Bank Warns of Global Debt Crisis: Guardian

Larry Elliott January 9, 2020
Global economic growth continues, fueled by low interest rates and increasing debt. The high interest rates make debt more manageable, but may not stave off financial crisis. “Total emerging and developing economy debt reached almost 170% of gross domestic product in 2018 – or $55tn (£42tn) – an increase of 54 percentage points of GDP since 2010,” reports Larry Elliott for the Guardian. “The...

Argentina Faces Economic Crisis: Buenos Aires Times

December 13, 2019
Alberto Fernández, sworn in as president of Argentina, inherits enormous debt, recession, inflation, a 10 percent unemployment rate and 40 percent poverty rate, reports the Buenos Aires Times. The peso has lost two thirds of its value since 2018. The many challenges compound the hardship in paying external debt. Fernández promises to increase economic growth but offers no details, partly because...

¥13 Trillion Stimulus Plan in Japan: Japan Times

December 4, 2019
Governments with heavy debt loads are hooked on stimulus and low interest rates. Japan, the world’s third largest national economy, has national debt worth more than 230 percent of its GDP. The Japan Times reports that government officials could add more debt by finalizing plans for a ¥13 trillion stimulus package. The government hopes to take advantage of negative interest rates from the country...

Africa and Sustainable Prosperity: Mail & Guardian

Joyce Msuya November 24, 2019
Sustainable economic growth in Africa requires a focus on environmental protection, maintaining clean water and fertile soil. “Six of the world’s fastest growing economies are African,” explains Joyce Msuya of the UN Environment Programme. “The continent is urbanising rapidly, and governments are working to provide the infrastructure, skills and policy to drive growth and development. But unless...